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Microsoft CorpMSFTBUYApr 26, 2023Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 18, 2026. Market Open.
Not a value company, but has become a "utility" style company due large scale adoption of products. Very strong product suite with high margins. Excellent management team. 30x earnings per / share hard to justify, but strong dividend and excellent balance sheet. Would recommend holding, or buying on weakness.
Hit record high earlier today. Makes sense especially with exposure to AI space. Cloud business is growing, subscriptions keep the money flowing. Not cheap now at 33.5x, growing at 15x, 2x PEG. Forward price to sales a bit high at 11x.
In all the right spaces and doing the right things. Hold. Be careful adding, as tech did so well last year.
MSFT is expected to grow in the mid-teens on the top-line over the next few years and trades at a forward P/E of 30.9. It trades at a premium, as it shoulld. With that said, we think the bar is high for above-average share price growth at MSFT. They are very large, being scrutinized on acquisitons, not cheap and have had a strong run in the last year. We think it is a name an investor can still do fine with over the long-term, but we might not expect 'fireworks' here either.
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IBM lacks the spread of clientele like MSFT. Also, IBM has been getting rid of their hardware business, focusing more on software with AI. In terms of quality, MSFT is better (customer loyalty, Office Suite) while IBM is inferior, offering little growth. IBM isn't a big player moving forward. Among megatech, MSFT is the top.
It deserves its re-rating. The report was a relief and its numbers beat: slightly better revenue and costs, making some disciplined margin improvement, and generated a lot of free cash flow. Generative AI is important, though they didn't stress it in the call. MSFT's beat benefits the market as a whole, given its 6% weight in the S&P. MSFT is on the verge of acceleration. Bulls say it's the way to play AI safely (cushioned by its various businesses), but bears say the valuation is too high and it isn't a pure-play AI. Her answer: the chart has climbed a wall of worry and has made a beautiful move higher after bottoming at the end of 2022. Also, the UK blocks Microsoft's takeover and she's glad--videogames are cyclical and is a tough business.