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Micron TechnologyMUCOMMENTAug 15, 2014Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 18, 2026. Market Open.
They report Wednesday. This has a habit of shares running up till reporting, then it drops after reporting. If you can handle this volatility, buy some before, then after the report. Their prospects are directly tied to a winder economic expansion. Also, there's a new refresh cycle coming in PC sales.
The decline in demand for PCs is unsustainable, and we've moved past the phase of cheap computes for our homes during Covid. If Samsung indeed cuts production, there will be a Q3 upside surprise in computers and semis. Whenever the semis cycle turns positive, Micron goes from the worst performer to the best. Buy this now.
Both Samsung and Micron are pulling back in production, so history tells us we are within two quarters before semis bottom in pricing. Can't tell the exact timing, but you need to start buying Micron NOW, which is why shares jumped today even after a lousy quarter. Semis are a boom and bust business with gluts and shortages. Highly cyclical.
This is the cyclical of the tech names. It is a deep cyclical in that when things are going well, things are very, very well, but when they go badly, the earnings just disappear. Closed at $31.04 and his model price is $52.85, a 70% upside. However, the market is sceptical because obviously earnings are great today, but what is going to happen tomorrow. There is a significant discount between the price today and what the model price is. The good news is, it is holding up one of his structural levels and, obviously, the balance sheet has grown quickly as they are aggressively buying back stock. Appropriately priced. If it pulled back to the $24-$25 level, this would be very positive for the name.