Paul MacDonaldNovo-NordiskNVOCOMMENTOct 20, 2020

A personal holding since 1995. Their weight-loss drug is the big news now. Remember that after this hype, we'll see if there are any long-term side effects (i.e. the stomach). It's an unproven drug, but could be fine. Meanwhile, they grow their dividend 12% annually. He took profits, because shares ran up so fast. Have the highest R&D to revenues among pharmas. A long-term hold.

Novo and Eli Lilly have both run up, but there's still more room to go, given the strong demand for their weight-loss drug. Insurers will probably pay for these drugs, because without them consumers couldn't afford them. Sure, others are developing their own drugs, but it's not easy. Pfizer just announced it's giving up.

Global leader. Recently became Europe's most valuable company by market cap. Diabetes and obesity drugs. Weight loss drug data showing positive cardiac effects as well. Raised guidance to 38% sales growth this year, with operating profit near 46% on the top end. Obesity treatment projected to move from 1M to 48M users by 2030.

Share price above its moving averages, beating S&P, 25% earnings growth rate forecast. Yield is 0.89%.

The largest company in Scandinavia. There is and will be lots of competition in weight-loss drugs. NVO has made a fortune through this drug, but their margins will shrink over time as competitors come. If you own this already, take profits, but don't expect NVO to double again.

Good job marketing Ozempic, taking the US and other countries by storm. Could be a $100B drug class for all participants. Significant weight loss, kidney and heart benefits. Always going to be side effects. Because of its runup, start with a 1/2 position, and then add on any weakness.

He strongly disagrees with some analysts who say that the new weight-loss drugs won't move the needles of their company stocks. He expects huge demand for these drugs to battle diabetes, which would prevent many other diseases. He sees a lot of runway ahead for LLY and Novo Nordisk.

Good chart which is indicating momentum. Would recommend buying. 

It has had positive momentum but don't chase it. Two of its drugs are leaders in the space but we don't know the long term effects of these drugs. There are competing products being developed in the weight loss space.

Recent drug releases have been good for share price appreciation. Currently valued highly. Would wait for share price to fall before investing. Not a good time to buy. 

Headquartered in Denmark it is the leading global health care company with $32 billion in revenue expected in 2023 and estimates keep growing. It was recently crowned as Europe's most valuable company by market cap. It is the clear leader in diabetes care and obesity drug treatments and produces 50% of the world's insulin. Expected sales growth is 38% this year with operating profit growth of 46%. EPS growth is 25% going forward. 
Buy 4  Hold 1  Sell 1

Is one of the biggest producers of insulin. Also, now have a hit drug to treat obesity. It's no secret that Western countries have obesity problems. However, a lot of promise has been built in the valuation, based on this drug.

All such drug stocks are going down (oversold) due to inventory worries. But he likes this now.

They stumbled into the hit drug, Ozempic to treat obesity. Nobody knows the long-term effect of this drug yet, but sales are through the roof. NOVO now faces a lot of competition in weight-loss drugs. If you've made a big profit, take profits. 

Diabetes is not going away. Obesity has made its latest drug popular. Have to ask what are the side effects? Trading at 34-35x forward PE, with a 25%+ growth rate. PEG of 1.6x is not cheap, but not expensive. Overbought. He'd like to see it at the 50- or 200-day MA, around $170-175.