Opti Canada Inc. (OPC.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

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Opti Canada Inc. (OPC.TO)

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SELL

If you own, you got bushwhacked by a secondary offering. He would reduce holdings but wouldn't buy more.

COMMENT

Offered shares at less than the going price last week. TSX stopped but he thinks the deal will still go though. The deal will ensure the company has adequate funds to ramp up production, which should peal out around Nov-Dec. If the deal goes through then the stock will be a Buy.

DON'T BUY

Stock price dropped because they made a secondary offering to institutional buyers at about 20% below current stock price. Thinks was completed today. Partnered in the Long Lake project. A SAGD project so the production is not what it should be. He prefers others.

DON'T BUY

Talking about doing an issue, which has affected the stock price. The issue will be very dilutive. Not sure where they are going to go.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick June 16/08. Down 89.57%.) Had expected oil to stay north of $100. Got caught up in the financial disaster. Continuing to bring on production at Long Lake.

DON'T BUY

On resource stocks he looks for asset diversity as well as a low-cost structure so that they can ride the inevitable oscillations in such a cyclical industry. This one is the absolute antithesis of that.

HOLD

A bit financially incumbent but does hold a very significant part of the asset, which Nexen (NXY-T) also holds in the oil sands. Thinks it is a takeout situation eventually. Speculative.

HOLD

New president is solid and will move the company forward. Completely revamped as they no longer operate Long Lake. Big issue is operational performance, i.e., getting the steam and getting it into the ground. 100% linked to the price of oil.

SELL

In situ oil sands production. Have had quite a bit of operational difficulties. If you own, consider taking some money off the table.

DON'T BUY

Huge debt load and we are in a debt crisis. It could be a take-out any day of the week and it could go up 100% but you are 100% speculating that this is going to happen. Costs are very expensive.

COMMENT

New CEO is a very astute dealmaker. Still has a lot of challenges for its balance sheet. Has that repayments due and he is not sure how they're going to do it. Ramp up is not going all that well. If they can get over the financial hurdle, there is a long resource that is worth significantly more than what it is trading at. A lot of risk.

SELL

Started to recover, but has done so too quickly. At the moment it looks like it is in a pullback. If you own, consider taking some profits and buy back in at around $2.50. To continue to rally, it has to break through $4.25.

DON'T BUY

In the current oil price environment, its projects are still in tough shape. They have a strong partner in Nexen (NXY-T) but their balance sheet is in pretty rough shape.

TOP PICK

8.25% Bonds due Dec 15/2014, Now seeing 22% yield.

SELL ON STRENGTH

Takeover speculation driving price. She does not buy stocks strictly for a takeover. If credit crisis continues they may have trouble.

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Opti Canada Inc. (OPC.TO)