Norman LevineProcter & GamblePGCOMMENTAug 19, 2015

They report Tuesday. He doesn't see a blowout, because the US dollar has gotten strong and that dollar strongly determines PGH's profits, given their overseas business. If shares get hammered, buy. This is a dividend aristocrat.

His theme for today is that he's really not that hot on the consumer. Of the whole economy, the consumer sector is the most exposed. Though a great company with a lot of good products, branded products tend to suffer when consumers are stretched. Growing about 3-5% revenue, 7-9% on earnings, trading at 23x. Pass. Better opportunities elsewhere.

Wonderful brand names. He's been reducing client holdings, based on results. Raising prices along with inflation, but volume numbers are actually negative. Higher prices are not sustainable. He wants both price and volume increases.

Yields 2.56%, which is relatively low, since interest rates are high in the US. This needs to correct before considering it.

The beat on sales despite raising prices by 7% YOY and have paid dividends and bought back shares. Remember that PG has been wiped out by higher commodity and transportation costs. Impressive. Posted 7% organic sales growth. They predict a $800 million windfall due to the costs of raw costs falling. They boast powerful brands.

Consumer and packaged food stocks can keep rallying. As we approach another debt-ceiling crisis, these stocks are good places to invest in. The whole sector. They are resilient. People take comfort in their favourite brand, from Campbell's soup to Hershey's chocolate. Consumers still buy them despite higher prices. Supply chain problems have been solved and freight costs have fallen, too. Raw costs like paper (cardboard) are falling, though such companies have existing purchase contracts. There's still room to run.

They just beat top and bottom lines and raised guidance. They have pricing power. 55% of business is done overseas and the USD has been weakening.

Has done exceptionally well. Defensive, high valuation, so his preference would be UN. Watch and wait for a pullback.

A blue chip stock that you can hold onto, if you already own. Boasts well-known global brands. A defensive you need as we head into a slowdown. Good balance sheet and they always raise their dividend. More expensive than other consumer staples, which is why she doesn't own it.

Expects a good report next week. They have pricing power. Volumes should be okay. They have premier brands and taking market share. They just raised the dividend.

Reports next week. Look for the effect of the USD, because they have a lot of overseas exposure.w

Got a break with transportation costs going down, but fell victim to a rotation into other names. Shares fell recently which was the time to buy. Shares got too cheap. It's the king of consumer products.

Down 4% in the last 3 months. Buy more. It's cheap now. Great company to buy in this environment where raw costs will go down, but they haven't cut their prices in supermarkets.