The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research)Shell plcSHELTOP PICKJul 06, 2023
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly
We reiterate SHEL as a TOP PICK. The new CEO re-committed to deploying capital into the highest returns that play to their strengths. This is after the previous CEO vowed to reduce production annually through 2030. Cash reserves are growing and the company is generating $45 billion in free cash flow annually. It trades at 6x earnings, at book value, and supports a 23% ROE. We continue to recommend a stop-loss at $55, looking to achieve $72 --upside potential of 22%. Yield 1.8%
(A Top Pick Aug 15/23, Up 1.7%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly
Our PAST TOP PICK with SHEL has triggered its stop at $62. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. When combined with our previous recommendations, this will result in a net investment gain of 5%.
Good to add when share price is weak. Will continue to hold shares. Hydrogen business will be good as well. Excellent long term prospects. Strong management team.
With growing cash reserves, a 15% ROE and trading at 1.1x book value, we reiterate SHEL as a TOP PICK. The company is introducing the fastest EV recharging stations at its Singapore stations, using renewable solar sources. We recommend trailing up the stop (from $56) to $57, looking to achieve $72, upside potential of 17%. Yield 1.8%
It didn't fully reflect the expectations in energy. You could still buy it since he expects commodity prices to move higher. It is a really well run company with a good dividend. It is transferring to renewables.
We reiterate SHEL, an ideal international diversified energy play, operating in over 70 countries, in everything from wind farms to renewable natural gas as a TOP PICK. It trades at 6x earnings, just over 1x book value, and supports a ROE of 23%. The company is generating great cash flow allowing cash reserves to grow, while aggressively retiring debt and buying back shares. We recommend trailing up the stop (from $52) to $55, looking to achieve $71 -- upside over 19%. Yield 3.4%
(A Top Pick Feb 11/22, Up 12%) Done well considering how the oil price has retraced. Pleased that it's moving into natural gas, hydrogen products and ESG in general. Is doing share buybacks. Happy to hold it.
In the face of a recession? Energy stocks are still trading higher when you look at the 200-day MA. Still likes and owns. Still sees very steady global oil demand, continues to outstrip supply. In 2022, US drew down 37% from reserves, which will need to be replenished. Oil inventories are generally low. Companies are focused on enhancing shareholder value. Industry-wide underinvestment. China's reopening can be a catalyst as well.
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly SHEL is the ideal international diversified energy play, operating in over 70 countries, in everything from wind farms to renewable natural gas. It trades at 5x earnings and 1.1x book value and supports a ROE of 23%. The company has been prudently using some of its cash reserves to aggressively retire debt and buy back shares. It pays a good dividend, backed by a payout ratio under 20% of cash flow. We recommend placing a stop-loss at $52, looking to achieve $68 -- upside over 20%. Yield 3.54% (Analysts’ price target is $67.69)
Decent valuation. Energy is his largest sector weighting. Energy prices should remain firm, in spite of volatility, given disruption from the war in Ukraine. If China backs away from zero-Covid, energy and that economy can move up. Strategic oil reserve has been depleted. Demand steady, supply weak. Focused on returning cash to shareholders.
It warned about profits yesterday, but they will still make a ton of money. You definitely want to be overweight energy. She holds 16% in her portfolio. Energy still has the lowest PE among the S&P sectors and 6.5% forward earnings growth.
Given the cashflows and potential to raise dividends and do buybacks, you have to add large-cap, European integrated companies. Favours them over Canada, excluding SU, as they're not subject to the WCS discount. Great total return story the next few years. You could also look at BP or TTE. He'd buy here.
ESG mandate is pushing energy companies into the sin stock category. So the valuation is coming down, yields are rising, total return story will be attractive. Aggressively buying back stock. Very good management. Not concerned by risk of product spillage impacting share price. Yield is 3.67%. (Analysts’ price target is $68.96)
We reiterate SHEL as a TOP PICK. The new CEO re-committed to deploying capital into the highest returns that play to their strengths. This is after the previous CEO vowed to reduce production annually through 2030. Cash reserves are growing and the company is generating $45 billion in free cash flow annually. It trades at 6x earnings, at book value, and supports a 23% ROE. We continue to recommend a stop-loss at $55, looking to achieve $72 --upside potential of 22%. Yield 1.8%
(Analysts’ price target is $72.40)