The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research)J. M. Smuckers Co.SJMTOP PICKSep 08, 2020

They report Tuesday. Shares have stalled lately, because Wall Street has lost faith in the defensives. If SJM reports a beat, money may flow back into this sector.

It should capitalize on restaurant closures in the current lockdown, but this stock is wildly inconsistent. SJM holds a curious assortment of products. He thinks SJM is ready to catch up, but prefers Hormel.

They have a large proportion of their business is coffee. They just made a big pet food acquisition. Debt to equity ratios for these kinds of companies tend to be high because they have a high credit rating due to the fact that they are inelastic – people have to buy the products regardless. Their problem is that their revenues are starting to slide. Little eCommerce startups have eroded 3% of all the revenues of all the big guys. There is nothing wrong with the company and it is a matter of how quickly they can get the revenues back up.

This is another of those boring US consumer product names. We now have an $.80 dollar that is good for purchasing US stocks. Good discipline with their balance sheet. A quality company. Dividend yield of 2.5%. (Analysts’ price target is $131.)

It looks like the downside is not over. Could it get back to $96? It could, because the model price is actually falling. If you own it, look for $96 which is where he would buy more. It could test resistance again at $132.65.

It is ripe for consolidation. It is always a bit of a richly valued company. Food and beverage is traditionally the safe place to be. They have done a good job with reinvestment opportunities. They have a long term record of growth and sustainable results.

The stock has done really well and relative outperformance has been great. This gives you a low to mid-teen pretty steady grower on an earnings basis. He feels okay about this.

Incredibly well run. 40% of sales and 50% of profits is from coffee. Huge margins of 25% on coffee. Their jellies and jams, etc. continues to do well. They are very great act making small acquisitions in specialty things. Had some issues on the costs of inputs into their products, which has hurt margins a little. Thinks this will be stabilizing. They also increase dividends and buybacks shares. Trades at about 18X earnings with a 2.1% yield.