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Stockchase Opinions

Josh Brown, CEO, Ritholtz Wealth ManagementVanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETFSMHCOMMENTSep 02, 2022

This equally weighted ETF of semis has a forecast PE of 16x. Some semi stocks have a forward PE north of 25x. Is this realistic? He doesn't think so.
$207.88

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$660.37

As of Jun 18, 2026. Market Open.

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BUY ON WEAKNESS
Technical analysis by the Chartist

There's been institutional buying of the semis stocks. Analysis says that semis have been in a long-term uptrend after capitulating in early 2020, though there was middling turbulence along the way, like the pandemic boosting PC sales, then those sales falling post-Covid, pulling back 50% from highs. Ugly. But after the late-2022 bottoms in semis (and the market), semis have been rising in a nice run. Rising interest rates were killing anything tech for a while last year. The summer 2023 pullback was shallower with lower volumes than the summer 2022 pullback, says data; support held last summer. That led to a strong rebound last fall. Analysis says semis can add another 25%, but not in a straight line. Wait for a temporary pullback before pulling the trigger.

DON'T BUY

It was a good play on the semis sector, but now it's volatile. He prefers holding individual names, like Broadcom, AMD and Nvidia.

DON'T BUY

Likes Nividia, AMD and LAM Research, but not the SMH ETF, because there's such a dispersion with this sector.

DON'T BUY
He's been negative on all semis lately, but only Micron is below the February 2020 level. For Nvidia to return below Feb. 2020, shares would have to be cut in half--a pretty big move. TSM and Nvidia make up 20% of SMH. The former would need to plunge 30% to fall below Feb. 2020. So, there's a lot of room to the downside. We'll have to dip down a lot to call a bottom in semis.
DON'T BUY
Semis have been slumping not just this week but for a while. They've been awful for a while. The Micron forecast is an example of a lot of nervousness in semis; there's been put-buying across the board within the SMH and going far, as far as September and October.
DON'T BUY
Look at its underperformance, down almost 5% today as stocks were up. Semis have been underperforming the S&P for the last 20 days by roughly 13%. It's in stark contrast to the bond rally. An ugly day. It may be okay for interest-rate sensitive tech stocks to rally today, like tech, but the move in semis is downright scary, which this reflects the epicentre of the economy.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 18/21, Down 6%) Semi-conductor business is a great business. Supply chain/chip shortage creating problems for the company. Current share price presenting good buying opportunity. Is a growth position in the industrial sector. Will continue to own shares.
BUY
He likes many of its holdings, or you can just buy this ETF.
BUY
At this stage, he'd be inclined to buy into this, with plays all across the board. You don't have to pick individual names.
TOP PICK
Engine of the economy, certainly the US economy, the way rails and vehicles were a century ago. Here you get all the big players. Mitigates risk. Likes the semis, and this is a simple, clean way to play the sector. Yield is 0.59%.
TOP PICK
No price target provided. A simple way to play the sector. Semiconductors are the engine of the industrial production in the US. Whether it be for computers, vehicles or internet of things. Gives you exposure to many key companies. Growth is almost guaranteed. Good way to play the sector with one instrument. A growth play.