John PetridesTeva PharmaceuticalTEVACOMMENTOct 24, 2017
Sell? This has been a disaster. If considering dumping, is this in a taxable account and do you need losses? If you are a long-term investor, this is a really good stock. Ask yourself, “If I didn’t own this, would I buy it today?”. He believes in the long-term thesis of this company, growth in generics. They control about 20% of the global generics drug market. As the global population grows and people get older, are countries like China and others going to care for their citizens? They are going to need generic drugs, because they are going to be significantly cheaper.
Has owned company for a long period of time in the past.
Previous reasons for owning stock not present anymore.
Waiting to see if new drugs are invented/patented.
He's put the white flag up on this one. It's about macro interest rates, currency moves. Don't waste your time with these story stocks. His model price is $18.80, and it could have all the fundamentals, but the macro waves swamp the boat. Go with the big names.
Tends to avoid companies with a ton of debt. Management missteps, and investors are paying for those. In the depths of a tough turnaround. He'd rather own a VTRS, where the debt is manageable, balance sheet's in better shape, with a better growth trajectory.
It's time to get back in. They all went crazy and then slid on sympathy when valiant went bust. There is tremendous value here. His model price is $21.26 or 63% upside. They presented earnings and the balance sheet looks great.
Generic brand companies like Teva have struggled in the last 5 years has they competed with each others. Pfizer is in the process of buying one of their competitors and the Pfizer stock dropped 5$ on the announcement. Doesn't own Teva, purchased United Heatlth recently. You can hold but it's not a name he would hold due to the risk and they have no value added.
They went from an in incredibly well managed drug company and then management decided to develop their own drugs and make mistakes. It is difficult to unwind these problems. Turning around a company like this will be difficult because of the debt. This is a highly speculative stock.
He sold it at a 50% loss due to price declines in generic drugs. That deflation has decreased lately, which is sort of good news. One of their big drugs came off patent, too.
A generic drug company that has had troubled times as pricing is becoming very competitive. Buyers are consolidating and squeezing margins. They have a MS drug that was a market leader, but now there are others competing. He would rather own brand name drug companies that can become leaders in their field.
It has done very well. But they made a huge acquisitions three years ago, taking on a lot of debt. They went through several CEOs. The generic drug space is tough and competitive. Generic drug pricing is limited as we head towards a U.S. election; generics are a target of politicians. Also, there are many lawsuits in the generic drug industry. Generics should do better after the election.
He is more content owning the major pharma versus generic producers. The competition in the space too intense. They have been involved in the manufacturing of opiod based drugs, which could come under regulatory pressure.
There is hope for it. Good news is the generic price declines have subsided, but "less declines" is not where he wants to be right now. Challenged in the next 12-18 months. Could go to low 20s, but structural headwinds for the business.
Sell? This has been a disaster. If considering dumping, is this in a taxable account and do you need losses? If you are a long-term investor, this is a really good stock. Ask yourself, “If I didn’t own this, would I buy it today?”. He believes in the long-term thesis of this company, growth in generics. They control about 20% of the global generics drug market. As the global population grows and people get older, are countries like China and others going to care for their citizens? They are going to need generic drugs, because they are going to be significantly cheaper.