Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA)

Pharmaceuticals tend to do well during the summer. A bit more of a defensive play, but not during the past few years with all the political rhetoric going on. They tend to do well between May/June all the way through to October. That is the period that runs up to the cold and flu season creating increased shipments of pharmaceuticals. Looking at the past periods of seasonal strength, this company hasn’t been benefiting. It has been underperforming the market, and the trend is firmly lower. Its major moving averages are all trending lower. However, at around $32, it is trying to find a floor. If you are a nimble enough trader, you could play off the $32. The positive momentum divergence suggests that selling pressures are waning, so it could have an upside move here.

Wouldn’t be a buyer of this today. He expects generic drug prices today would be on a downward trend. He still sees 5%-8% growth in branded drugs. The current trend for generic drugs is -9%. He is going to stand on the sidelines until he sees where generic prices level out.

(Market Call Minute) The CEO just retired. This is the stock that everybody loves to hate. Its biggest drug is coming off patent. But it sells drugs in 200 companies around the world, it trading at around 8 times earnings, and is the cheapest of all big pharma in the world.

There are a lot of big problems here. Their CEO has resigned, there were corruption charges in a number of countries for bribery, a couple of their big drugs have come under attack by generics. We are in a bull market, so do you really want to fight this battle?

One of the largest generic pharma companies in the world. The CEO left the company. Earnings came out today and they beat their numbers. They made an acquisition which they have to integrate into their overall company. 6 times earnings and a 4.2% dividend yield. In the long run it is a good stock.

Look forward and not backwards. There is a lot of bad news behind them. There is some headline risk around a bribery scandal. They control about 20% of the generic drug market. Let’s see what happens when a new CEO comes on. Your risk is more down sided than your reward has upside.

There will be a time when this will be a hero stock for someone who bought it at the low. However, that is a tough call to make. Your odds of getting it right are low. The whole space is highly political right now.

This has been a good company for a long time. A leading global generics provider. Pharma in general has been really under the gun. With so much pressure from both a Clinton and Trump, it is really a focus area and will be one of the most attractive areas once the dust settles and there is some clarity on it. Right now, there is tremendous pressure on drug prices.

One of the generic companies that focuses on the top of the market. They tend to have the newer generics. The bad news is that they are selling in the US to 3 joint ventures. The wholesalers and retailers got together to form joint ventures which controls 80% of generics, so they get much lower selling prices. The trick is to be very efficient in manufacturing, to be able to meet the bids as well as being early in launching drugs that have just gone off patent. A tougher game to play than it used to be. Operationally, the company historically has been very good. It has sold off, and is reasonably attractive.

Technically, this does not look good. The chart shows it is in a distinct downward trend, and recently broke a key support level. Also, it is still underperforming the market. All the indicators are trending to the downside.

This was weak and it disappointed the street. A good, blue-chip quality generic name, that you want to buy when it gets really cheap. Looking at the chart, it has gotten really cheap again. Trading at about 7X with an 8% growth rate.

This was close to $70 a share, and currently is at about $34 a share. It could earn $4-$5 in the next 12 months, a very attractive valuation. 60% of their business is generics, and they are the market leader. About half their revenue is coming from emerging markets, and that has to be a growth area. Just acquired about a $30 billion portfolio of generics from Allergan. Dividend yield of 4.02%. (Analysts’ price target is $45.50.)

An interesting story. A great Buy at these levels. Trading at about 8X earnings with a nice dividend yield of almost 4%. The largest generic maker globally. They acquired Allergan’s generic business and there are a lot of costs they can take out. Sometimes generics are focused on one drug, but this company is much more diversified across a wide spectrum of pharmaceutical lines. The market is slightly worried about the change of CEOs, as well as a couple of drugs that need to have a new molecule made. Although a generic maker, they also have a pipeline of branded drugs. In the long run, this company will do very, very well.

A generic manufacturer, but do have some branded drugs. The company has been experiencing quite a bit of competition on one of their key branded drugs, so the profit growth is very uncertain, and the share price responded accordingly. There is just not enough clarity going forward.

His data is telling him that this is a tremendous company. ROC for years and years has been 12% or higher. In the last few years, it has been in the 20% range. However, it has not done so great in the last year or so. He would say that this is an opportunity. There are probably some issues in the pipeline that you would want to work through and understand a little better, and that is not his forte.