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NYSE:TOL
On Wednesday we'll see US home sales data, which he feels remain strong, but there isn't enough supply. Toll and DHI (DR Horton) are buys here to capitalize on this shortage.
(Top Pick Feb 17/15, Down 29.60%) A very high quality builder with a lot of land holdings. Housing starts are at record levels. Data points support a continued recovery in housing. Last year it was not as fast as people had hoped. This one is quite interesting unless the US goes into recession, which he does not see.
One of the luxury builders in US housing. They have pricing power and are still coming off the 2008 problem and are getting volume increases. They have secured about 8 years’ inventory of land. Household formations are running at about 1 million a year, and historically they have run at about 50% higher.
US homebuilder. Services the luxury high end of the market. After a muted year in the US housing market in 2014, he expects there will be an acceleration in housing starts in 2015/2016, and they are well positioned to take advantage of that. Because it services the high end of the market, there is less price sensitivity from its customers. A lot of exposure to California, US South and attractive markets. Not cheap, but looking at 2016 numbers it is trading at a PE of about 15X, which historically is not expensive.