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Stockchase Opinions

Timothy SeymourUnited Parcel ServicesUPSBUYJun 16, 2021

UPS has done a great job showing capacity discipline and has pricing power. We're not late cycle, otherwise he would stay away from transports like UPS and FedEx. UPS Q1 numbers saw shares spike and has since given some back. Now is a buying opportunity.

$200.91

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$105.00

As of Jun 18, 2026. Market Open.

Transportation
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SELL

Sold it because of the slowing economy, and the company suffers from higher costs and lower volumes.

SELL

He just sold it. He was recommending this until their earnings report proved him wrong. Their margins were 8% vs. 13% historically. He's humbled. It will have to fall a lot before he considers buying it back.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

She'd buy at $125. They've had to deal with a lot including the strike and inflation. Margins are under pressure from Amazon, but $125/share is the safe pre-pandemic PE and collecting a 5% dividend? She can live with that.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Loves it. The market is wrong. Maybe the numbers next week won't be great, but he would buy on any weakness.

BUY

Reports next week and given how the consumer remains strong, that report should not disappoint. They enjoy a duopoly with FedEx.

BUY

The labour agreement expires on July 31. He isn't concerned, but is concerned about the potential damage to the wider economy. We don't need this at this point in the recovery. UPS manages its balance sheet well, a better choice than FedEx.

BUY
Fedex vs. UPS (FedEx just reported a strong quarter)

Owns UPS instead, and it's good that FedEx that both are focusing on profitability. She prefers UPS for having more density in its ground business and more tied to e-commerce which will remain strong. UPS is exposed to Amazon, which some feel is a risk, but she doesn't anymore, because Amazon can't invest more in infrastructure anymore.

COMMENT
Fedex vs. UPS (FedEx just reported a strong quarter)

How long can both keep cutting jobs until they can't cut anymore? FedEx retained pricing power with ground revenues up 7%. Interesting. How long can they maintain this edge as we enter a recession.

DON'T BUY
It reports Tuesday. They have unionizing issues. If you believe e-commerce will re-accelerate, buy FedEx instead.
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TOP PICK
UPS, one of the world's largest package delivery companies with 2019 revenue of $74 billion, provides a broad range of integrated logistics solutions for customers in more than 220 countries and territories. The company's more than 500,000 employees embrace a strategy that is simply stated and powerfully executed: Customer First. People Led. Innovation Driven. UPS is committed to being a steward of the environment and positively contributing to the communities we serve around the world. UPS also takes a strong and unwavering stance in support of diversity, equity and inclusion. Social media mentions are up 44% in the past 24h.
BUY
An analyst downgraded it today, but this is a short-term trading call. Long-term, this is worth buying. UPS has a high yield. This will rebound after a short dip, he think. As a retail investor, distinguish between a short-term call and a long-term one.
BUY
UPS has recently seen a nice turnaround. Fuel costs have moderate to help the entire transports sector in recent weeks.
BUY
They report tomorrow. E-commerce is alive and well, so these shares deserve better.
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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 12/22, Down 5.7%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with UPS has triggered its stop at $177. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This will result in a net investment loss of 3%, when combined with the previous top pick recommendation.
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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly As UPS continues to provide strong results and is priced attractively, we reiterate it as a TOP PICK. Recently released earnings beat expectations by 15% and support a stellar ROE over 95%. It pays a great dividend, that has been growing for 14 consecutive years, backed by a payout ratio under 45% of cash flow. Cash reserves continue to grow, while they buy back shares and retire debt. We continue to recommend a stop at $177, looking to achieve $236 -- upside potential over 23%. Yield 3.18% (Analysts’ price target is $236.31)