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Opinions Jon Vialoux
Valero Energy CorpVLOTOP PICKJan 08, 2016
Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 18, 2026. Market Open.
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Trades at a low PE, but is a value trap and is highly cyclical. Their EPS leapt from $9.16 in 20167 to -$3.50 in 2020 to $29.11 last year! Up, down and up big. Has had a a partial share buyback. Today, share are hitting 5-year highs. However, future 2025 EPS estimates are sliding to less than half of 2022's peaks, because of less demand for oil and gas. Also, the existential long-term obstacle are EV's. Consider the massive clean-energy incentives in Biden's 2022 IRA. It's possible earnings have already peaked--big warning.
Jamie Murray 
Ross Healy
Keith Richards
Ross HealyWell run, good pure play on refining. But you want to own refiners at beginning of cycle, when prices are low or going up, not now. Now you want to be in the integrated space.
Scott Willis Coming right down, as have a lot of energy stocks, seasonally weak. But trend is up, though a bit of volatility. Might get a bit more weakness through July. Energy is a really good investment. Could be a bit volatile with economic activity. For VLO, Kelt, and the etfs XEG and XLE, look at your technical lines over the next couple of weeks, you can pick some up and add to them over the summer.
He is neutral on this and is very cautious on energy and has been for the entire year. At this time there has been a real whip in refiners. He has backed away from the space, because they are really whippy. Unlike some stories, such as biotech, you take the stairs up and the elevator down, so you have to be really careful about your entry point. He would prefer something a little more conservative such as Mkt Vectors Oil Services ETF (OIH-N).
Has not been adding to his holdings, and wouldn’t add to it right now. In his view, this is the best operated independent refiner. It now pays a good dividend of something like 3.6%. However, if you look at the current P/E ratio, it is far higher than its historical single digit PE.
David Dietze
(His Top Pick stocks are still holding up as of present, but the big warning is the systemic risk that is involved with the market.) There are very few stocks that are good in the energy sector. Where the supply of oil presently is, gives you about 29 days of supply, so there is a substantial supply. All this company is going to do is refine it, which is going to be a significant tailwind for them. He has a long-term trend line support starting at about $60. As long as that can be maintained, there is an average gain between the start of the year and the beginning of May of about 20.1%, and that has been positive in 21 of the past 25 periods.