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iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index ETFXEG.TOCOMMENTApr 03, 2020Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 19, 2026. Market Open.
Big runup, and then a sideways consolidation. Easy money's been made in energy. Oil likely to move lower and be in a sideways, choppy trading range. For the bulk of this year, and into 2024, energy stocks will go sideways and be relative underperformers. For example, if market's up 10%, energy might be up 8-9%. So they'll be broadly in line with market, but will underperform. They're late-cycle plays, and all his works shows that we're starting a new cycle.
XEG widely diverges from the price of oil. Why? The large caps take more time to come back. There's mass selling in Suncor, rumoured to be the Saudis, but this should be over. He expects SU to rally. Divestments and general confusion about peak demand impacts fund flows into large caps. It's faster to make the small-caps rally because they need less money. It's very difficult to find mass supply of shares of small caps.
The composition of this ETF has become highly concentrated. Five names account for 78% of its value. CNQ and SU account for most it. Both of those names have rallied well compared to their peers as buyers in the US have been stepping in. However, their hedge books are naked to oil prices right now. He would prefer to own small cap names with good hedge books, if you select the right ones he thinks.