
Chief Investment Officer, Partner at ETF Capital Management Inc.
Member since: Jul '02 · 4637 Opinions
Watching for US Treasury announcements this week on quarterly refinancing needs. Appears requirements will be less than originally planned for. Upcoming US Fed meeting will also be indicative of US economy. If US Fed starts to issue more bonds than expected, not a good sign for markets (need to raise capital is bad). Widely expected that US Fed will keep rates flat, and appears rate cuts are on the horizon. Reduction of US Fed balance sheet will also be interesting to watch. Upcoming earnings from big tech companies will be defining on direction of markets (could break momentum of markets).
Best place to get growth in portfolio that is not tech oriented is ETF called PAVE. Offers investors an option to get infrastructure spending exposure. As globalization reduces, more spending will occur "at home" in North America. Bricks & mortal syple business' also provide traditional cash flows. Not a cheap valuation, but would recommend buying on share price weakness. PAVE ETF also pays a nice dividend yield for defensive investors.
Believes Chinese economy will not continue to grow due to slowing population growth. Cheap markets in China are not expected to grow - does not see growth catalyst. Expected stimulus from Chinese government not materializing. Upcoming US inflation reads will be indicative of trends. Trend appears to be downwards for US inflation, however time will tell. Slower inflation will be good for markets - could be catalyst for economic growth.
Believes S&P 500 record high a result of recovery in tech names. A.I. theme very powerful in bringing up strength in markets. Falling interest rates good for prospects of tech companies. Waiting to see if strength in markets is sustainable. Would advise investors to be cautious.
Believes geopolitical tensions in Middle East & election in Taiwan will result in structural changes in economy, and are not temporary. Not surprised that investors don't believe inflation will abate quickly. Expecting US election to bring a surprise with a re-election of Donald Trump, however doesn't think that is a positive for markets. Unofficial kickoff of earnings last week will be indicative of North American markets. Appears investors and consumers are cautious right now due to fears of recession.