Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTAEnergy Select Sector SPDR FundXLESELL ON STRENGTHSep 18, 2023

The oil price is up 16% in the past 3 months and energy stocks up 11%, so stocks lag. However, interest in oil futures has not been this high since Oct. 2021, so eeryone is looking for oil opportunities. Also, hedge funds are holding their highest positions in energy since Feb. 2022, when the Russian war began. This means the spot price of oil is vulnerable to a correction, but the supply/demand imbalance makes energy stocks a buy.

A great equal-weighted ETF in oil holding 25 names, more mid-cap than large-cap. She's bullish oil.

She's very bullish energy; energy prices will remain high. $86 is the new $60. The Saudis hold all the cards, so they have an incentive to keep the oil market tight. Inventories are very low and the free cash flow yield in this sector is ove 10%. Spending is disciplined and companies are givign back to shareholders. This is no longer a feast or famine sector.

She likes energy for the second half, that it's lagged in the first half of 2023. There's a floor on the oil price, which will support these stocks. Continuing consumer demand for travel will help support energy.

Oil has been weak lately due to recession fears and the uneven open in China, but we're entering a traditionally strong season for crude. XLE is up 2.5% this month, though -9% YTD. He still likes fundamental earnings and free cash flows of the oil companies. He still likes energy and sees upside in the near-term.

He's hurting energy which is -9% YTD. There's clearly softness in coil demand; China's reopening is uneven. But crude oil is mispriced.

Bullish on energy prices long term.
Saudi oil cuts will boost energy prices in short term.
Wait to buy on weakness.

Big runup, and then a sideways consolidation. Easy money's been made in energy. Oil likely to move lower and be in a sideways, choppy trading range. For the bulk of this year, and into 2024, energy stocks will go sideways and be relative underperformers. For example, if market's up 10%, energy might be up 8-9%. So they'll be broadly in line with market, but will underperform. They're late-cycle plays, and all his works shows that we're starting a new cycle.