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Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTABMO CHINA EQUITY INDEX ETFZCH.TOWATCHJul 30, 2018

He has been underweight on China for the last year or so. It has underperformed dramatically over the last 6 months. It is starting to get more interesting to him now. He gets it through a US EFF. China is going to have a challenge holding a 7% growth rate. It should slow to 4-5% over the next couple of years. He thinks ZCH-T will fall another 10%.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Unknown

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$26.71

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$17.70

As of Jun 19, 2026. Market Open.

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PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Sep 05/23, Down 6%)

He's long-term on this ETF. There is defined support at $14, so if you buy at $14, you're okay. But be patient. If it breaks below that support, he will get it.

TOP PICK

He bought it at the bottom. Per his normal strategy, he will sell at the top of its trading range. China was feared/disliked as an investment, which became a traded trade, and that's when he bought. Inevitably, sentiment reverses.

BUY

Risks include geopolitical risk in China.
Broad exposure to China risky but carries opportunity.
Believes a good way to play a China re-opening.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

It'll take time to come back to where it was in 2021. There is a lot of supply that needs to get through. Should get back most of the recent decline in the last few months.

BUY

A fine way to play China in Canada. Exposure to the big-cap names. Thinks it is on sale. Wants to have this exposure. Should be no more than 5% of your portfolio. Likes it.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

China is the second largest economy in the world and will be first in the future. With the tilt towards equalization and communist philosophy. China has some growth challenges with bad demographics that is aging and shrinking. 1.4B people is still a huge number. Be mindful on trimming in rallies. 2-4% would be okay with up to 5% with the next few years. Focus on the China A shares, not the Hong Kong shares.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

A lot of money is unclear on China. China wants to be the biggest economy of the world, as the reserve currency and wants to lead. However, they cannot do this without opening capital markets and letting it thrive. Accumulating every notch down. An opportunity to add every few pullbacks. However, there is limited visibility on the future.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Depends on your view on China. With regulations and squeeze on their top companies, it has dampened appetite for Chinese exposure for investors. Would nibble around here. Things should normalize. A different regulatory environment.

COMMENT

ZCH is more focused on the tech names with BABA counting for 22% of the holdings. There is virtually no financials. XCH has about 20% banks. Must understand what you own. Internet names have been pounded recently. KWEB could be a good way to play it.

DON'T BUY

Has owned this before. There's so much political interference and a lack of transparency that he doesn't want to own any Chinese stocks. Sure, some companies are performing well, but he is avoiding China. Not for him, though ZCH itself is a good ETF.

COMMENT

China equity ETF. There is not likely to be any escalation in trade risk between China and US. Trump is not going to escalate, but there will be no progress either. China has massive growth problems. The population will peak in the next 5 to 10 years according to the world bank. Their natural growth is held at 2%. There is a big headwind in China and he would not add to it except in pull backs. He prefers the 'A' shares market in the US for China exposure. This is not a no-brainer play.

COMMENT

Modi is now allowing Apple to do business there. India's had problems with bureaucracy, and if he makes it easier for foreign companies to come in and raise capital, it could be great. It depends on how the trade talks will go in terms of China. China has many geopolitical issues.

BUY

He likes China. Alibaba is 15% of it and China Mobile is 10%. Very concentrated this ETF but still like it. He prefers another actively managed approach. He likes the GEM ETF from Goldman Sachs to play the theme.

BUY

Is all the bad news baked in? A good China ETF. China is the second-largest economy in the world, but has less than 2.5% exposure in the MSCI indexes. America has peaked, so money managers will be chasing China. This is a 10-20-year play with lots of corrections. Dont time this. A long-term secular play. Edge money in patiently over time.

SELL

He got out of emerging markets early this year at a modest loss. The currency issue has knocked down China ETFs. China doesn't play by the rules, either. Some may call it corruption. Cut your losses and sell.

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We paraphrase the experts by hand, we watch the shows and write down what we understood from the experts’ comments. We are human and can make mistakes, help us fix any errors. If you see something that you know is not right or if there is a problem with the site, feel free to email us at : [email protected].

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Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTABMO CHINA EQUITY INDEX ETFZCH.TOWATCHJul 30, 2018

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