Mike PhilbrickBMO S&P/TSX Oil & Gas ETFZEO.TOCOMMENTSep 17, 2020
Challenge with buying US ETFs that participate in MLPs is that they're not favourable to a Canadian investor. Withholding tax of 15-30%. Be very, very careful on the MLPs. If you want gas exposure, think about XEG or ZEO. Most bang for the buck would be the HED, with small cap exposure. Small caps have more operating leverage if you're confident gas prices will rise. HOG is a bit more conservative.
Energy is entering strong seasonality from mid-February to early April. The chart shows we're poised to move up. There's undersupply of oil. Oil fundamentals are good.
oil There's underproduction of oil and supply constraints. Also, US oil reserves were drained before their elections and now needs to be filled whenever oil dips to $70. So, oil has a floor and there remains demand. A good sector to own, especially if China opens next spring. XEG holds Canadian oil stocks, and is market-cap weighted, including CNQ, Suncor and Cenovus among its top holding. ZEO is an equal-weight, so offers a little more diversity. And HXE is the cap-weighted ETF like XEG, but it doesn't pay a dividend. So this is good outside an RRSP. For midcap oil, look at NNRG, but charges a higher MER. It depends on your tax preference and the contents of each ETF.
Energy ETF Commodities are sensitive to the cycle: warning. Suggests XEG or HXE, both market-cap weighted in oil producers, but they are dominated by Suncor and CNQ (over 50% of these ETFs). For more diversification, look at equal-weighted ZEO-T. But he prefers HUC-T because it gives you commodity--and not commodity stock--exposure. For all of these, be very, very careful--there could be severe drawdowns in energy if the economy falters in the next 12 months.
An equal weight to play the canadian energy sector. Long term he is not bullish but in the medium term, there is underinvestment in energy and this should keep oil elevated. Until OPEC opens the flood gates, it is a good way to play the energy space on an equal weights basis. Trade this name.
He likes ZEO's equal weighted in energy. But also look at HOG-T which is midstream oil with a very different set of companies. Buy both, in fact. HOG also pays a 4.5% yield, slightly lower than ZEO's.
(A Top Pick Nov 23/17, Down 14%) Canadian oil has been beaten up since Nov. 2017. Oil investors are frustrated. ZEO is equal-weighted, so it's biased towards mid-caps.
A Canadian oil ETF? ZEO offers better diversification than XEG, or especially HOG-T which focusses on energy midstreams (storage and transportation of oil/gas) with little overlap to the other two ETFs. Own ZEO and HOG. If you don't care about risk, then go for ZEO only.
ZEO-T vs XEG-T ETF – The difference between these two is concentration. The XEG is dominated 50% between CNQ-T and SU-T. In the equal weight portfolio (ZEO) these represent only 17%. There is a higher yield with XEG.
(Past Top Pick Oct.10, 2017, Down 7%) Sold it and immediately also sold XEG, both being Canadian oil ETFs, because he sees no pipelines being built in Canada. The current $50 spread between WCS and WTI is crazy, nuts. Canadian taxpayers are losing money. It's absolute madness.
Play it with puts and calls. It's stuck in a tight range with only one spike above $12 which he doubts it'll crack again soon. This ETF doesn't move enough for him, so he'd rather own the individual oil stocks.
Challenge with buying US ETFs that participate in MLPs is that they're not favourable to a Canadian investor. Withholding tax of 15-30%. Be very, very careful on the MLPs. If you want gas exposure, think about XEG or ZEO. Most bang for the buck would be the HED, with small cap exposure. Small caps have more operating leverage if you're confident gas prices will rise. HOG is a bit more conservative.