Opinions Jon VialouxA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA CommentaryN/ANov 25, 2016
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Leverage and credit expansion
Leverage is often blamed for the 1987 stock market crash, about 38 years ago. Rising use of borrowed money, such as margin debt in equities or high loan-to-value ratios in real estate, amplifies gains during bull phases and magnifies losses afterward. Easy credit or relaxed lending standards frequently accompany bubbles. Currently, there is a lot of concern about margin debt. According to the U.S. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), margin debt is at about US$1.1 trillion. Sure, it is a big number, and is at a record. It represents two per cent of total S&P 500 market value, and is up 35 per cent in the past year. But again, it may not be as bad as it sounds. The S&P 500 is up about 15 per cent in the past year so some margin expansion is expected. Lower interest rates also help investors manage their debt exposure. And, two per cent of the S&P 500 does not sound like a lot, considering expected earnings growth forecasts in the 10 per cent or more range for next year. Still, margin debt is certainly something to watch, and may be a sign of future troubles.
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Watching for US Treasury announcements this week on quarterly refinancing needs. Appears requirements will be less than originally planned for. Upcoming US Fed meeting will also be indicative of US economy. If US Fed starts to issue more bonds than expected, not a good sign for markets (need to raise capital is bad). Widely expected that US Fed will keep rates flat, and appears rate cuts are on the horizon. Reduction of US Fed balance sheet will also be interesting to watch. Upcoming earnings from big tech companies will be defining on direction of markets (could break momentum of markets).
Best place to get growth in portfolio that is not tech oriented is ETF called PAVE. Offers investors an option to get infrastructure spending exposure. As globalization reduces, more spending will occur "at home" in North America. Bricks & mortal syple business' also provide traditional cash flows. Not a cheap valuation, but would recommend buying on share price weakness. PAVE ETF also pays a nice dividend yield for defensive investors.
Case for Owning Equities Over the Long Term:
This might make the prophets of doom quiver a bit. We ran a Bloomberg screen this week, using Jan. 9’s closing market prices, on every stock in North America. The market at that time had been open for a grand total of six trading days, yet we found 21 stocks that were up more than 20 per cent this year, ranging from a high of 106 per cent for Athena Bitcoin Global to 20.6 per cent for Structure Therapeutics Inc. Since we are on the topic of pie-in-the-sky news, how about annualizing those returns? Wow, that would be something.
For our screen, we only used companies with a market capitalization of more than $100 million. The two companies noted above are more than $1 billion each. If we take off our market cap restriction, we get even more early winners.
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Garner predicts a surprising but sharp uptick in grain prices though agriculture has been hated. Tech has made farmers more efficient. New production came online after the grain shortage following Russia's initial invasion of Ukraine. But demand from China has softened. However, the bears/pessimists have sold by now until we're now seeing a floor/bottom. Garner predicts corn rally to $5.50. Don't buy wheat now, only on dips. He expects wheat to rally with corn. Wheat's chart shows an inverse head-and-shoulders, so wheat is pointing up and could rebound to the neckline of $6.60; a breakout could touch $7.60. Soybeans could see short-term weakness, but a breakout past $13 could see the price reach $14, and can bottom at $11-11.80.
Historically it is a good sign that U.S. markets keep hitting record highs after 18 months of not making new highs. Also we are in an election year after a negative mid-term (presidential) market. This is good too, historically. There has been 5 new net term highs in January which predicts well for the rest of the year. A number of global markets have woken up after 15 years, including Japan after 30 years. There is a substantial improvement of the breadth of the market and in putting new money to work. Along these lines there could be a fair bit of money coming back into Canadian stocks. Also there are a lot of Canadian companies not just focused on the Canadian domestic economy, especially in industrials. Latin America and parts of Asia are interesting - not just the U.S. U.S. earnings are improving after a contraction - could be up 15% by the 4th quarter. There are corporations and individuals with high cash rates.
Market. The best 6 months of the year started off with a shock with a presidential election. The technical cue to get into the market for the best 6 months’ trade was actually realized on November 7, a couple of days before the election itself. There was a gap higher from the 200-day moving average, and then the market just took off from there. Everyone was pessimistic going into the election results, and everybody was hedged, so essentially you didn’t get that shock selloff event. The market just kept on grinding higher. From about mid-2015 to early 2016, we have been bumping up against the 200-day moving average as resistance. Now that we have confirmed that as a level of support, cash is coming off the sidelines and the markets are grinding higher, and everyone is becoming more cyclically focused. They are shedding their defensive positioning, especially in bonds, utilities and staples.
US $. The pace of the rise is presenting concern. Up 6% in this quarter alone. When we get 4th quarter earnings come January, we could see that bite some of the companies, and that is a risk. The US$ rising itself is not bearish, but represents a strengthening economy, it is just the pace of the rise. If you have a rapid rise like we have seen this quarter, they can weigh on some economic data.
Retail. Seasonally, retail tends to peak today, so you want to shed your retail positioning and rotate back into the broader sector, the consumer discretionary sector.
Canadian Banks. Next week starts the Canadian bank earnings, which typically creates a “sell on news” event. We have had a phenomenal run since the period of seasonal strength began for some of these Canadian bank stocks back in August. You want to take those allocations in your Canadian banks, avoid the “sell on news” events, and look for US alternatives, hopefully on a bit of a pullback.
S&P 500. Everyone is waiting for a retracement because, after all, this market just shot up unexpectedly. The best period to assume that a pullback will occur is during the tax loss selling period. Seasonality remains positive through the beginning of December, and then we get the tax loss selling period, which occurs between December 7 and December 15 on average. The S&P 500 has only been positive 20 out of the past 50 periods. 60% of the time it is negative. Average loss is about .05%, so it’s not a big deal.
Santa Claus Rally. This runs from December 15 to the new year with an average gain of 1.91% on the S&P 500, and it has been positive 80% of the time for the past 50 years. If you want to have the retracement to get into some of these positions, the best period to look for that is during tax loss selling.