A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT

Options. He is always a seller of options. Buying is pretty risky.

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Markets. If he has a worry, it is about the bond market – a bubble. There is always a bubble when there is easy money. We have been in a bull market for bonds for 25 years. Bottom line is that interest rates are made artificially low by the fed. Within the next year, he thinks we will get an interest rate sock in the long area. We know that with all the money that has been printed, we will get inflation. With companies, the cash flow can keep pace with inflation. A bond can never grow. The coupon is the coupon. IBM issued bonds to buy back their stock, for example.

COMMENT

OPTIONS: Never sell options more than one month out because you get the best premium per day. If you sell options you are harvesting money. He only writes options on blue chips. The more volatile the stock, the more premium you get. His stats average of 30 days, 3.5% out of the money, paid 3.5-4%. You should expect to make 2-4% per month.

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Elections in the US yesterday. You can safely say that legislation will be harder to get through. There will be some element of gridlock in US politics. Like Canada’s minority government, things will get done. He is still focused on the emerging market as the significant driver. He has only a reasonable overweight (15%), though. Has a lot of companies that are exposed to emerging markets. Is bottom up and looks at companies, not countries, but ends up being 35% US and increasing. There are great opportunities in the US stock market. A Year and a half ago he got permission to currency hedge but is not doing it right now. Canadian dollar will struggle to stay above parity.
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Gold: If you look at what it has done, it definitely has momentum but it is hard to analyze it fundamentally. With the rest of the world devaluing, there is only one place to store your wealth. Gold is the answer. If you believe this is going to continue, then gold is likely to rise. He uses Gold as a hedge.
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Federal reserve in the US announced another round of QE. It seems the news was already priced in to the market. Has seen more volatility on just interest rate days. And there was the election, which could be a catalyst for the market but it could move the markets 10% in either direction in the next month starting about now. Thinks QE is a waste of time. Any company that is profitable or has a prospect of being profitable is a value investment. Stocks are pretty fairly valued.
BUY
US $: This is not a bad time to exchange CAD$ into US$. As it approaches parity he would be quite comfortable purchasing US$.
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People can short the index to hedge against their long investments. Concerns now will be noise a little way out. Good fundamental companies will do well in 2011 whereas the indexes may not. Options are a way to get leverage in a portfolio. Premiums associated with options plays are getting rich. In uranium there is still a supply/demand imbalance. He would play it from a stock perspective.
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Are Hedge Funds a different asset class? No, they are using assets that other asset managers use but in a different way.
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What to do based on US election results? Both parties will have to print money. You will see a lot of inflation down the road, even if deflation short term. He would go overweight resources.
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When you write a covered call you should enhance the long-term return on the underlying stock. He rolls them over every three months.
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Delta hedging. Templeton suggested he would isolate his good stock picking by shorting the index. You have to decide on the optimum ratio of long to short, for example 3 to 1.
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Man Investments: Great strategy. Largest hedge fund (65 Billion) in the world. Good company, great strategy. They have computer models that follow trends in the market. They do well if market is trending down or up for a long period of time. Don’t do well in sideways markets.
TOP PICK
Vertex Fund: One of the biggest hedge funds in Canada that no one has ever head of. They don’t use a lot of leverage. Equity fund. A Multi strategy portfolio. About a Billion dollars. Almost 20% a year since 1996 through the up and down times. They write covered calls. Right now they have options on gold. Very little money at risk, but if gold does well they make a lot of money in the next few years.
TOP PICK
Northpole multi-strategy Fund: Very good risk controls, hedge by shorting the index. Canada’s oldest hedge fund company. Were trading beaver pelts in the 1800s. Usually equity based strategies. Not a lot of leverage.
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