A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

CI Global opportunities: This is for the bears out there that think we will have serious inflation, currency devaluation, and economic collapses. Up 107% in 2007, 50% in 2008.

(Top Pick July 14/09, Up 27.79%) Picton Mahoney Long-Short Equity Fund.

(Top Pick July 14/09, Up 6.53%) Arrow JC Clark Opportunities.

(Top Pick July 14/09, Up 37.97%) Sprott Hedge II.

He doesn’t get good demand numbers out of China. At least in the near term, metal and gold prices are going to do quite well. Gold production has been declining as the price has been going up. Companies are paying top dollar for good deposits in takeovers. The higher the margin in production, the more likely they are to be taken out.

(Top Pick Oct 6/09, Up 14.30%) Gov’t of Canada 5.75% 2033 Bond

Every week has volatility. We have discounted potash. QE2 is pretty well priced in. Money velocity is dropping. This is one of the ingredients of deflation. He is neutral between bonds and stocks.

QE expectations were a big reason for the run up in the markets. Doesn’t think the Fed even wants to do QE but they are boxed in. There might be a little bit of a sell off on the announcement. Usually after the election it is a great time to be in the market, but this time might be a little different. He is expecting a strong 6 months, though. Doesn’t see a big correction at this time. The markets are too strong. He is 95% in cash in his HAC fund – since May. His finger is on the trigger.

Shorting: in his book he has included a few strategies. He shorts using ETFs.

Currencies: US$ has a weak December because countries repatriate their currencies. Then US$ has a strong January.

Natural gas. Expects it will continue to stay cold. There has not been the massive conversion from other fuels.

(A Top Pick Oct 30/09. Up 11%.) US treasury 3.625% maturing August 15/19. There were more deflationary pressures than most people thought with a good chance that longer-term yields would fall, which happened. Now starting to see a spreading recovery. (See Top Picks.)

Top Short US treasury 2.625% maturing August 15/20. (See Past Picks.) 1) Rates have gone too far down and shouldn't be this low. 2) There is a recovery coming, which will cause some demand in credit to pick up. QE1 and QE2 is pushing on a string. Pumping money into the system but no one is borrowing it.

Government of Canada 4% maturing June 1/41. This has given a good ride and you should take your profits.

Foreign debt? He is a “stay at home” guy with fixed income securities. He would recommend you keep your money in Cdn$ bonds as foreign bonds are too risky.