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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT
Potash: Large potash deposits found in Brazil. Getting financing for mining it so you are looking at 5 to 6 years to get it to market.
COMMENT
Expecting emerging markets to outpace the developed economies. Currency fluctuations can create problems but generally the 5 to 10 year period should level things out.
COMMENT
ETF to hedge against a falling US$? ETFs are becoming more popular but you have to be very careful as to whether they include a degree of leverage, how often it is rebalanced etc. Be cognizant of the costs of hedging and how holding the US$ could impact the diversification of your portfolio. Would question why an individual investor would want to do this.
COMMENT
US$: - Doesn't think the US$ is going off the cliff. To assume this would mean that there are other currencies that it would depreciate against. Doesn't think there are many global economies that could stand significantly higher currencies without damaging themselves.
TOP PICK
Picton Mahoney Lon- Short Equity. Big believer in being contrarian. When markets go up really, really fast they go down and when they go down fast, they go up. Good managers on the Long and Short side. They try to give you half the risk of the market and have come markedly close to that for the past few years.
TOP PICK
Arrow JC Clark Opportunities. Tends to be run with a fairly low exposure, in other words about 35% net Long so if you take the Long positions minus the Short positions he gives you a net number. Tends to be really low risk.
TOP PICK
Sprott Hedge LP II. A lot of people are starting to say that Sprott’s performance has been lousy in the last year and hasn't done well in the last few months. When he hears this, he knows it is time to go back into this kind of fund. If you are contrarian, you will do well.
HOLD
Sprott Opportunities Hedge Fund. Manager has done a fantastic job but has recently retired. This company has the greatest depth of management of any firm and 2 other managers are taking over and will probably do a good job.
COMMENT
Setting up a diversified hedge fund portfolio. Use a 2-pronged approach. 1) Look at strategies that have been out of favour for a while. 2) With hedge funds are something called a correlation. Have a portfolio consisting of something that has not been well with something that has done well and are complementary to each other.
BUY
McElvaine Investment Trust. Small to mid-cap stocks and got hit pretty hard last year. This doesn't worry him. This is a fund that will do well over time.
BUY
Star Hedge Fund Managers. Closed end fund where they take 3 of the better money managers in Canada and put them together in one portfolio. Thinks very highly of all their managers. Trades about 20% below its NAV.
BUY
Burlington Capital Management Hedge Fund. Consists of all special situation stocks and they pair of a lot of the situations with Short stocks. Look for lower volatility and steadier returns. Good management.
COMMENT
CI Trident Global Opportunities. Seems to under perform in bull markets and outperform in bear markets. Tend to use a lot of different strategies such as fixed income strategy and not just use stock or equity strategies. The place to be if you want to diversify and lower the risk of your overall portfolio if you have a lot of market related instruments.
COMMENT
Canadian Banks: - Market is probably overdue for a bounce to the upside and the banks could possibly lead this however they are at the top end of the range now and he doesn't think the earnings are going to be exciting in the short term. On the Canadian end he would prefer looking at the life insurance companies instead, which have more recovery potential.
COMMENT
Bank bonds versus Bank preferred shares? Using Royal (RY-T) as an example, their 5-year GIC is about 2.2%, 5 year bond is about 3.75% and 5 year preferred units about 5.52%. GIC and bond are taxed at the highest marginal rate. Preferred is a dividend so only taxed at half the marginal rate. (See Top Picks.)
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