Market: TSX Composite and S&P 500 have gone up 42% since March 9 in anticipation of very strong earnings gains. Environment between now and late this year is not that great. There is a war in currencies. Chinese are fighting the US$ and the US is trying to protect. 2 huge elephants are causing a lot of pain. If you owned the S&P 500 or the Dow in the last month, you lost 6% because of currency.
Market: S&P 500 has a potential reverse head and shoulders pattern. Right shoulder has not developed properly as yet and still require some time before it evolves.
Gold: 2 periods of seasonal strength. 1) July until September and 2) end of October to end of February. Latter one has worked 8 out of the last 10 periods for an average gain of 13.9% per period. The first one is now getting lined up very nicely. The key is to look at gold in terms of currency. In terms of US$ has had a pretty good move and technically looks overbought but Cdn$, British pounds or Euros is actually down 15% in the last 2 months. You have to watch for a breakout in the trend and when it does, you should do very well.
Provincial strip bonds in a TFSA? With the strip bond, you are actually buying at a very big discount to par. For a fixed income alternative, this is fine.
Twenty-year provincial bonds. Thinks the credit is fine on these. There is going to have to be supply which could affect performance short-term but maturity risk would be close to zero.
Aeroplan Bonds 9% maturing April 23/12. Not a huge fan of their business model. It's a short-term bond and low on the investment grade scale, which concerns him a little bit. There is a high probability that it will mature but he wouldn't be comfortable holding it.
US bond market versus Cdn bond market. The US bond market is deeper by a wide margin and there's definitely more ameliority as far as corporate bonds are concerned. His concern would be that if you buy them you are exposed to the US$.
Natural Gas: A lot of supply and very weak demand. Expect it will weaken in the summer and will strengthen into Q4-Q1 but not into the lofty levels that they where in the past.
Crude Oil: Expects it to be higher than at present but not dramatically. You might see another $10. Market is anticipating up ticks in demand but we still have to chew through the floating inventory.
Gold: US$ is the world's currency. Any other currency that was spending like the US was would definitely face deflationary pressure. The world can't figure out a better currency to hold. Long-term trend on the US$ is down but correlation between it and gold is not as significant as it once was.
Gold: No time in history has there ever been the same circumstances that we now have, which could cause gold to shoot up substantially. Currently about $150 an ounce more than what he thinks its fair value. (His FV calculation is based on relative inflation rate of gold compared to the inflation rate of the US$.)
Market: This is a sucker rally. Far more downside ahead. In an over leveraged economy like this debt cannot be repaid and we need to see this shake out and we are years away from this. Bankruptcies and change of ownership is the bottom line. Not prepared to stick his neck out much further than gold and cash.