Uranium: Starting about 2 years out, there is a huge demand for uranium, much more than the current supply can meet. Thinks it is going to get very expensive. You have one to two years before this is going to happen.
Inflation:-US has to physically print $1 bills because when everybody is trying to hoard cash, there are physically not enough $1 bills. Printing presses can be turned on for a certain amount of time without being inflationary. It depends on what the Fed does 2 years from now. There is no inflation currently because the money multiplier is spinning down so quickly.
Market Outlook: Thinks we are in a tactical rally that began in March and is likely get us through into the fall. If you can't be an active investor, you should use this rally over the next few months to reduce your equity weight as he thinks there will be more trouble to come in the fall or winter. If you are an active investor, take advantage of this rally but make sure you have an exit point.
(A Top Pick May 5/08. % N/A.) Canadian banks. When Lehman's failed he liquidated his financial services. Since then, he has traded them. Not yet convinced that we have gone enough through the earnings cycle to say that the recession problems are fully recognized.
Telecom Sector: Becoming relatively positive on this sector. 1st quarter earnings have shown a shrinkage in cell phone usage. Heavy users have largely done their staff cuts so he doesn't see another big round of that. The business is a high margin one.
Dow Jones is in a short-term uptick but the longer view shows it is still trending down. The Put to Call ratio has reached the same level as last May. Thinks the near-term bull is done.
Gold: Short term it could go anywhere but in the long-term it should trend higher because he expects inflation will be starting. He is guessing it will be anywhere between $900 and $1000 in the next 12 months.
(Market Call Minute.) US banks? If you have to buy them, you have to be focused on the ones that have staying power and growth such as M & T Bank (MTB-N), Wells Fargo (WFC-N) and US Bank Corp (?).
Corporate bonds versus the stock market: Caution. Yield curve is so steep that everybody is hungry for yield. Greatest yields right now are in the longest maturities, where there is the most risk. He suggests laddering portfolios to spread the risks around, especially corporates. Buy individual bonds rather than ETFs or bond funds.
Top Short Canada 1.25% maturing Jan 6/11. A 2-year bond yielding 1% is a great Short. He doesn't think there is any way for government yields to go anywhere but up in the next year or two.
Trinidad Energy Services 7.75% maturing July 31/12 yielding close to 9.5% to maturity. There are a host of convertible bonds issued by income trusts that are still outstanding.
Markets: Thinks we are in a secular bear market but there has been a cyclical bull market in the short term. You have to be careful and not get sucked in here.