Market Commentary — Page 111

Market Commentary

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COMMENT

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. A stark message on August 26th from the Chairman of the Fed, Jerome Powell, setting out their determination to fight inflation with more sharp interest rate hikes, knocked down stock markets around the world: the TSE index was down 5.1% in the last 5 sessions of August and down 1.8% for the month, led by the Technology sector. The pressure on interest rates was reinforced on Wednesday when Canada’s central bank raised its base rate by 0.75%. Inflation remains a significant risk in Canada. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT

No doubt today's inflation news will mean a 75-point interest rate hike from the US Fed. Inflation is here to stay and we must be serious to deal with it. The market is discounting a broad downturn in the economy. People are slow to realize that the tide has turned from central banks pouring stimulus into the market to hiking rates.

COMMENT

Cash as a past pick He remains very cautious with these hot inflation numbers and hawkish Fed comments. Keep more cash than you usually would.

COMMENT

Believes an economic "hard landing" is to be expected. US Federal Reserve concerns for high inflation are justified. ~4% interest rates are a reasonable expectation. August inflation numbers will be interesting to watch.

COMMENT

Best news on US Dollar strength is behind us (expecting prices to fall). 6-12 months, thinks energy prices will normalize, and war in Ukraine will end. Central Banks in Europe and Asia are not able to raise rates as quickly as US Federal Reserve.

COMMENT

Educational Segment. Rising interest rates create problems with 60/40 (balanced) ETF portfolio. Better to pursue option based ETF's that create Alpha. Examples like ZWE are good route to generate higher returns for investors. Concept of a 60/40 (balanced) ETF portfolio is a defensive investing strategy. Good exposure to global assets is beneficial to investors.

COMMENT

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. There are five main sectors that we noticed consistently outperform – tech, materials, consumer cyclical, financials, and communications. These are the more interest-rate sensitive sectors and are often dependent on a strong consumer, and so they perform well in years where interest rates are flat or falling, and economic growth is strong. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT

The weakening U.S. dollar is a function of competitive currencies. Europe is starting to raise rates now. The cooling of the U.S. dollar is a key ingredient in the ending of the bear market in equities but there are others as well. The lower dollar also is better for earnings of big corporations and strengthening growth stocks. We are in a confusing situation because interest rates are rising at the same time as slowing growth and lower earnings, but we could still be many months away from a mild recession because the unemployment rate is so low. He sees rolling recessions and the U.S. in the later innings of raising rates. Stock pickers should should know their companies well and in particular look for ones raising guidance in this environment. Looking ahead there is a better outlook for Health Care especially in the med-tech area. Also maybe financials and alternate energy.

COMMENT

Usually the stock market bottoms 6 to 9 months before an earnings trough and he thinks earnings will get worse and bottom in Q1 or Q2 of next year. Therefore now is the time to start buying in small stages perhaps up to January.

COMMENT

Back from vacation and he's having trouble understanding this market. Don't give up the ship. There are some good things happening. But the bears say inflation is running rampant, expecting the Fed to raise rates to 4-5%. Hopes Jay Powell hikes rates by 75 points this fall, then 50 points this fall. Meanwhile, Ukraine is winning the war against Russia, and if they win it will be huge for the stock market--collapsing energy and food prices. The lows have already been put in, and Apple soared $6 today.

COMMENT

The market got oversold. Market fundamentals are still quite healthy and are seeing signs of inflation coming down. Watch new inflation data next week. If this rate-hiking cycle pauses by the end of the year, that is positive; it will offer clarity to the market on what comes next.

COMMENT

September is seasonally terrible, but we may have brought that forward into August. The battle lines over where earnings will go are drawn and we will see clarity in second half of this month during pre-announcement season. He hears from companies that things are pretty good.

COMMENT

Doesn't feel that markets will fall 20% even lower than the mid-June trough, as an analyst warned yesterday. Doesn't see a catalyst for that. But we will bump along at current levels into mid-October. It isn't just the Fed. We're seeing improvement in the jobs participation rate. Also, we need to see a serious re-rating in 2023 valuations for such a plunge.

COMMENT

He targets 4,200 on the S&P on this technical bounce. Not sure if it will break through that because of hot inflation, natural gas soaring and sanctions over the Russian war are biting Europeans. China could open back as those consumer spend after lockdowns, which is what happened here, but maybe not. So, earnings could be revised lower.

COMMENT

Believes market is moving entirely on sentiment right now (emotions and feelings). July rally has faded and market is over selling (feels like a roller coaster). US Federal Reserve comments in Jackson Hole created negative sentiment. Investors should invest as if market is normal (accurate pricing of companies). Extreme markets as of late are a function of emotions.

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Educational Segment. (A Commentary)

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