A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Blockchain technology is very cool. He loves cryptography. He's been watching Bitcoin since the beginning, but he doesn't buy some of the more "out there" narratives. 

If you look at its behaviour and its correlation to other assets and indices, it behaves like a technology high flyer. It's a bet on the future of money, perhaps. But a sequel to Bitcoin could come along that may be superior in some respects, so that's the risk.

Uranium has been doing very well. He wouldn't say it's because of the inflation thesis specifically. There are huge geopolitical concerns, oil markets, and ESG to explain its performance YTD. It is a raw commodity, so a little bit of exposure as an inflation play does make sense.

Long story short, for the very long term it all comes out in the wash whether you hedge or not. It's specific to each individual and depends on how many US dollars you plan to spend.

He and his team are not tax experts, and the answer is very individual-specific. There are some general rules of thumb you can go by. 

Put the more taxable instruments in a sheltered account like an RRSP. But that's not the same as a TFSA. For some investors, US-listed ETFs can be better in an RRSP because foreign income gets more favourable tax treatment. You can check a box on a form, and there's no withholding tax. If it's a Canadian-listed ETF, withholding tax might be completely foregone.

XSP or ZSP are good starting points. One is hedged, one is not. HXS is another option, though it doesn't pay distributions, just accumulates as capital.

Consult your tax advisor.

Bonds would be one of the few asset classes in your portfolio that would zig when the market zags down. You get an anti-correlation benefit. That's what bonds are supposed to do in a portfolio. They just aren't able to deliver that when rates are extremely low, which they were up until 2 years ago.

Oil fundamentals are weaker than usual due to record demand as OPEC+ cut supply, but other sources are supplying too much. 2024 could see soft demand on the margins. Otherwise, collect dividends and enoy the share buybacks.

US financials have had a huge rebound in November after last spring. If interest rates decline, financials will benefit. However, she hesitates, because banks are most vulnerable to loadn defaults, bankruptcies and credit losses. She prefers tech now.

He won't chase the semis. Q3 saw a peak in earnings group, so he expects a decline in Q1 2024, because the wider economy will slow. He expects Q1 to be the weakest quarter in 2024.

After two phenomenal years, energy is consolidating this year, unfortunately. The issue has been supply. In 2024, if the US avoids a recession, then energy can work.

Valuation Basics: Price-to-Earnings (P/E)

The price-to-earnings ratio is typically the first thought that pops into investors’ minds when hearing about valuation multiples. The calculation for P/E is the current price per share divided by its earnings-per-share (EPS).

Essentially what P/E tells an investor is how much they are paying or need to be willing to pay per dollar of the company’s earnings. This means that a higher P/E is typically less attractive than a lower P/E, because as an investor you would typically want to pay a cheaper price when deciding between two options. P/E does have limitations though, if a stock’s EPS is negative, in which case an investor will be unable to get a value.
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Recent comments from US Federal Reserve an attempt to emphasize higher for longer interest rates. Markets don't seem to believe narrative of higher for longer interest rates. Expecting a hard landing in the global economy. Does not think markets will be able to maintain momentum. Gold futures (higher) pointing towards some investors fear on markets. Rising Bitcoin prices a speculative narrative around issuance Bitcoin ETF's in USA. Fall in oil prices due to skepticism on OPEC ability/willingness to cut production. Believes floor around ~$70 for oil prices. 

American Association of Individual Investors recent survey pointing towards bullish outlook for investors. Expecting economic pain in global markets as believes investors too confident. Believes investors should be more cautious going forward (keep cash on sidelines for bearish economic opportunities at the bottom). Could be opportunities for investors if markets fall. 

Company Highlight: Enghouse Systems (ENGH).

Enghouse Systems (ENGH) stock was up 8.61% in the month, down 9.48% YTD and up 7.49% over the past year. The stock price has bounced around over the last year: it reached a yearly high of $43.40 in late February 2023, fell to a low in August of $28.02 (it was the 2nd worst performer in June 2023) and rose to close at $32.56.

ENGH is a leading global telecommunications technology and IPTV SaaS platform solutions provider. It provides vertical enterprise software solutions focused on contact centers, video communications, healthcare, telecommunications networks, public safety and the transit market.

Results for the  third quarter ended July31, 2023 pleased management: Revenue ($111 million, up 8.7%); operating profit ($30.9 million, up 3.8%) and cash flow ($39.2 million, up 33.8%) all looked good. Also, recurring revenue at $72.3 million was up 13.8%. Additionally, Adjusted EBITDA at $33.4 million , was up 2.9% over the comparable last year period and cash on hand at period end rose to $249.7 million. However, net income at $17.6 million ($.32 per share) was down 2.8% due to increases in amortization of acquired software and other expenses. The acquisition of Lifesize Inc was completed subsequently for US$20.7 million and management sees further acquisitions in future. 
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Watch the U.S. 10 year bond yield since it is the biggest instrument in the investment world. The bond market is much bigger than the equity markets. Many things are tied to it: mortgages, annuities, etc. Bond yields and the growth parts of the equity markets go in opposite directions. If rates start rising again this would probably affect the stock markets again. He feels rates could go higher since inflation is still higher than it was two years ago. Only the rate of the increase in inflation has slowed down. We haven't seen the impact of higher interest rates yet since everything has been smoothed out through credit.
The 50 year chart for the 10 year bond market shows that we are in new territory. If the 10 year bond yield goes to 3.9 or below, it could be bullish for markets but could also affect the view on recession and lead to a hard landing.
Expect a flood of borrowing by the U.S. government in the years to come - and Canada too.

The question was on what technical indicators to use. Two basics are the 125 and 50 day moving averages used by lots of trading desks. His favourite is a Japanese system called Ichimoku where you get lots of data in one picture. It easily identifies a bull or bear market.