Market Commentary — Page 144

Market Commentary

COMMENT

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Sentiment in the markets is exceptionally negative. A lot of the selling is likely done. Investors that are still holding are aware that rates are rising. Lower inflation numbers could help the market bounce fairly well. Earnings trends on average have been very good. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT

Today, Jay Powell sid he wouldn't hike rates by 75 basis points, and shares soared. Until that moment, stocks could have swung either way. By tomorrow morning, the market will return to worrying, though. Sellers fear Russian is out of control, that China may invade Taiwan, that the hikes will lead to a crash landing. But he is confident that Russia will back down as the West keeps arming Ukraine, that Powell is intelligent and a smart Fed Chief, and he would not sell this market. He'd own oil, defence and cybersecurity, food, drugs, banks and even some tech, like AMD and Nvidia.

COMMENT

It's widely expected to be a 50-point move tomorrow as well as June, but what he will listen for is their commentary and tone--hawkish or dovish? The bond market is the driver here. The 10-year yield touched 3% yesterday and anticipating the Fed's action while the market rerates what it expects will happen. The market is now at an extremely negative point, as pessimistic as 2008 or even further back, based on data he's seen. There are challenges and the market won't turn on a dime, but investors must remove their emotions and accept that cyclicality is a part of markets. It's a difficult but important time.

COMMENT

We're four months into a bear market. US Fed increases are widely expected, so let them happen. Inflation is approaching a peak and the rate of inflation will decrease. Companies that are still growing at the FAANG stocks, not slowing down, generating a lot of free cash and buying back stock. Also, consumer stocks with strong brands, like Pepsi and Frito-Lay, have pricing power. Witness the Loblaw-Frito Lay war earlier this year. He's watching these sectors.

COMMENT

Educational Segment. Looking at some indicators, it looks like stocks are oversold. Looking at seasonality for the second year of a presidential cycle, you see a period of a cautionary area. May tends to perform the worst. We are probably oversold that there will be a bounce after. Area of opportunity right now. Tradable.

COMMENT

It's been the worse start of the year for the NASDAQ. S&P500 and bonds are also having a bad start. Typical portfolios are not doing well this year. We will probably get a bit of a trading rally.

COMMENT

We will probably get 50 basis point increase this week. They want the overnight rate to 2-2.5% as fast as they can. Then they will pause and re-assess. First quarter GDP results were negative. Although consumption was fine, the Feds will still look at it to decide how much to tighten.

COMMENT

Inflation. Things should moderate eventually. Some of the big accelerators such as rents and car prices should slow. Wage pressure will be sticky. We could see base rate of inflation stick in the 3-4% range. It will be different and more difficult on a policy basis to stimulate.

COMMENT

There is 1.7 trillion in repos. There is money out there to suck up the bonds that are being sold into the market. Over the last month, tax receipts have come in much higher than expected. Funding needs for treasuries will be less than expected.

COMMENT

Job market. Still a decent jobs report. Saw a downtick in labour demand. It is still expanding but right on the line. The Fed may be tightening aggressively could mean a recession.

COMMENT

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Higher rates will increase government borrowing costs. However, inflation will help a little since inflated dollars are able to pay down more fixed debt. Likely another factor that needs to be considered as rates start to go higher. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

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COMMENT

High inflation due to the fact that Federal Reserve is behind the yield curve (made a mistake). Market multiples are in question due to uncertainty of Federal Reserve actions. If Federal Reserve raises rates too high - concern is that it might cause recession.

COMMENT

Believes a US Fed 75 basis point hike is possible in order to give market comfort. Large interest rate increases will create opportunity to create soft landing. Investors should be looking at value, dividend and energy stocks. Also opportunity to buy depresses technology shares (PayPal/Facebook etc.)

COMMENT

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The end of the bond rout is probably getting close. Hard to time perfectly the top and bottom. Yields are now at more competitive rates, although they still yield less than inflation. Could wait for further rate hikes before adding, since it will give more clarity. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

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Educational Segment. (A Commentary)

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Inflation.(A Commentary)

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Job market.(A Commentary)

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