A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

He still urges getting out of Canadian dollars and into the US dollar. Go through your broker. He expects the USD to rise. He sees deflation which he worries about. The US treasury trade has been painful. Buy USD to protect your capital during this difficult time.

We're in the middle of earnings season, but there's volatility in the market. The Nasdaq peaked at July 19, but is testing the bottom of its range since then. He's pretty hedged. The USD is stronger because of fear of inflation and rates. He expects the next AI development to be in software to house and interpret all that more data being produced. 

The Backdrop of the Decline in Utility Stocks

Bond yields, interest rates, and yields on cash products like GICs have been rising to levels greater than 5%, and this has been leading investors to reconsider the risk/rewards of their high-yielding stocks. Right now, investors are worrying over the ‘higher for longer’ theme on interest rates and not only has this led to some investors selling their high dividend-paying stocks, but it’s also led to concerns over companies with high debt loads. Of all the companies in the stock market, none are more leveraged than utilities, and these high debt profiles have sparked a recent sell-off in utilities stocks.
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The rising bond yields are a return to normal levels before the financial crisis of 2007/2008. The questions are: do rates keep going up and does the peak hold for longer. Equity markets seem to be adjusting to higher rates. Inflation is trending down but is still above the 2% target. U.S. corporate profits are down but are expected to be up a bit in the third quarter and maybe as much as 9% in the 4th quarter so this type of yield is not reflecting a recession. Canadian banks have a good yield at 6 to 7% so you could start taking a position in them.

Believes interest rates have most likely peaked. Retail sales data pointing towards consumer spending slowdown. Higher interest rates adding pressure on consumers. Expecting inflation to moderate with higher interest rates. Long term bond yields also impacting spending behavior. ~5.5% Canadian bank yields very attractive for investors. Lots of opportunity for investors in Canada at this moment. 

30 Year Treasuries: Risky government bond. Would prefer 1-5 year bonds. 

Weekly Market Update:

Canadian inflation cooled to 3.8% in September, down from 4.0% in August amid a continuing relief of grocery prices, leaving room for the Bank of Canada to keep interest rates unchanged. On the other hand, in a recent meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell validated a pause in policy tightening in November while being open to a further interest rate hike if necessary, putting pressure on the equities market. The Canadian dollar was 73.03 cents USD. The U.S. S&P500 ended the week down 2.2%, while the TSX was down 1.5%.

This week had more reds than green. Real estate slid by 4.0%, while financials gave up 3.2%. Industrials ended the week down 2.3%, while consumer staples and information technology slid by 1.9 and 0.4%, respectively. On the other hand, materials gained 2.1%. Consumer discretionary and energy both ended the week slightly up 0.4%. The most heavily traded shares by volume were  Canopy Growth Corporation, Baytex Energy, and Argonaut Gold.
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Despite big challenges in markets and in the economy, exiting could be the biggest mistake investors make. Lots of fear circulating. Rapid changes in interest rates have had big impacts on the economy, on both businesses and consumers. Easy to get sideswiped by negative sentiment.

There are a lot of bargains today. If you own good companies, you'll do quite well over the long term. Over the short term, there could be some volatility.

There were some views of interest rate cuts later this year. Because inflation has been stickier than thought, that pushes out the likelihood of rate cuts, even into the back half of 2024.

The Fed puts out the dot plot every quarter. You can clearly see that the view right now is that rates will trend down. Higher rates have had a big impact on a lot of stocks. There will be some relief down the road, but not right now.

Absolutely. Starting to see it with central banks around the world diverging, as they all have different nuances in their economies. That slight diversion is likely to continue. Tightening and easing to steer the economy will be a more important feature of economies going forward.

You can find value in a variety of sectors. Some of the ones that have been hit the hardest because of interest rate increases are the income-sensitive stocks: utilities and banks. Because the market is so volatile, you can get your opportunity in almost any stock. Keep your shopping list handy, and your buy prices lined up.

Absolutely. We're so lucky in Canada to have a number of companies that pay out a high percentage of earnings to shareholders. You get the dividend tax credit, which is preferential. In the US, there is some withholding tax.

Tough. So many ways to get access via ETF or individual companies, but they all depend on the commodity price. Infinite number of reasons to invest in gold. Recently, it's been the Ukraine-Russia war, as central banks have bought gold to diversify their payment systems. 

He steers clear of the sector. Look at streaming, such as FNV. It is quite expensive, but if you have your heart set, add on a pullback.

Pros & Cons of Utility Companies:

In the last few years, central banks around the world have consistently raised interest rates to tamp down global inflation which resulted from easy monetary policies during the pandemic. However, given inflation seems to be quite persistent due to the oil supply shortage and a strong labour market, economists are currently expecting rates will stay higher for longer in order to tackle inflation completely.

Consequently, the utility sector in general has been under tremendous pressure due to that sentiment change. Historically, the utility industry is a direct competitor for capital with bonds, given that the industry has historically been a stable, predictable dividend grower, investors largely consider it to be a “bond proxy”. However, a persistently high interest rate environment not only squeezes the profitability of these utility names, as interest expenses for the general industry become more expensive (most of these companies have high debt levels), or even worse is a liquidity issue for some highly leveraged names. The interest rate hikes also reduce the attractiveness of the dividend yield, as income investors can now get a relatively risk-free yield of around 5% without taking the equity risk.

That said, the industry is quite attractive for income investors seeking dividend yield and dividend growth, but most of these names have limited capital appreciation potential. In addition, the industry usually involves a high level of debt in order to make the industry economics appealing, which not every investor would be comfortable with.
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