Market Commentary — Page 231

Market Commentary

COMMENT

For now, the market is rotating back into big tech, but really we're watching watch the Fed will do with interest rates and where inflation will go. Truth is, he doesn't know and nobody knows. So, take a barbell approach to do well either or any scenario that happens, whether the Fed keeps rates low or raises them. FAANG will have their day in the sun, but he expects cyclicals/reopenings will return to the fore and rise again. There are a lot of unknowns, but the economy is on good footing and the outcome is likely positive. Part of inflation will be temporary/transitory, due to supply chain disruptions. For example, the price of lumber spiked, but has since fallen 40% from its peak. Brookfield sold their position in West Fraser Timber, which is a signal.

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COMMENT

Rising CAD effecting US stocks for Canadian investors Yes, there is an impact, but take a long-term view. The CAD has ranged from 60 cents to $1.07 and now it's in the middle. The first portfolio he managed has risen 37x since 1986, over the years, while the exchange rate has fluctuated 5%.

COMMENT

Fed meeting on Wednesday. Doesn't think they will change opinions on anything. There will be some information on inflation and updates. Big focus on Jackson Hole conference at the end of August. Commodity prices show that after a certain cost, the cost becomes prohibitive and modulates this.

COMMENT

Oil. Higher gas prices is a pure tax on the consumer. There has been a year or two of under investment in the area. There are calls in the shorter term for these prices to go higher. It is in OPEC's hands. Supply will come on from Iran later this year. Lots of moving parts. More gas prices go up, there will be less consumption in other areas.

COMMENT

Israel government changes. We are seeing an even more right-wing government come in. Troubling for peace in the Middle East. Geopolitics coming out of the G7 meeting is also on the radar. Can be disruptive in the bigger picture.

COMMENT

Duelling infrastructure bills in US. The build proposed by Biden is billions but over a decade. Needs bipartisan support. Without it, there will not be any substantial moves without it this year.

WAIT

Canadian financials in general. The steepening yield curve and higher profitability is already priced in probably. The yield curve has seen some flattening in the past weeks. We will still have a steep yield curve for a while. Right now, would not add exposure to the banks. Sees market volatility in the next few months. Would wait for 5-10% dips before adding new money.

COMMENT

Crypto. You can chose either Ethereum or Bitcoin. Wouldn't call it investing, it is speculating at this point. If you are looking at which tech is probably better, it would be Ethereum with its open architecture. Wouldn't recommend to investors.

COMMENT

Educational Segment. Yellen came back from G7 meetings and was able to get buy in for a global minimum tax rate. One of the narratives that Yellen put forward was to level the playing field. Raising taxes on corporations to pay for the debt is a big deal. Companies have 3 things they can do with income: invest, increase dividends, and buy backs. Buy backs exacerbates inequality as it only benefits senior executives with options and shareholders. The focus on ESG and fixing inequality will become a big part going forward. Buybacks will be seen under a new lens.

COMMENT

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. By sector, there are opportunities in energy, financials, industrials and materials. Look for companies with good balance sheets. Low debt and more cash. Also search for a track record of profitability. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

N/A

Market. The market is very good at pricing things in, and in this case inflation. The market did not react to hearing there was inflation. Anyone looking to allocate capital has to make bets a long way down the road. There are values on some value stocks that are still pretty low.

COMMENT

The U.S. market is selling industrials and bank stocks to rotate into growth stocks, as the market eyes Wednesday's US Fed meeting. He expects the US Fed Chief, Jerome Powell, will keep rates low to allow the poor to find decent jobs. Powell has been upfront about his plan, so pick up bargains. He agrees that inflation will run its course. There are senior growth (FAANG) and junior growth stocks (Twilio, Roku, Etsy, Docusign). See comments about Caterpillar.

COMMENT

Technical analyst Larry Williams sees the late-June Swoop, a modest dip to a deep dive. So, sell the S&P in mid-June then buy it back after that dip. Sell on the 8th or 9th-last trading day of the month, meaning the 18th or 21st this year. This is based on strong gains over the last 22 years. Therefore, next week the market will be ugly. He doesn't know why this is so, but he accepts it as reality.

COMMENT

Market rotation. Still going on and very natural. A broadening of the economy. As the base of vaccinated people grows across the globe, we will see sectors that had not been doing well get a boost.

COMMENT

Inflation. Central banks have not done anything positive to help with increasing housing prices. There are big concerns or no concerns depending where you stand. Those who believe the central banks will manage the excess liquidity and so are not concerned. Seeing central banks in NA taking steps to remove liquidity. We will see interest rates go up in the medium term. Those who are concerned believe the central banks are making policy errors and the record level of debt will be problematic. Inflation will not come this year.

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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert(A Commentary)

Rising CAD effecting US stocks for Canadian investors(A Commentary)

Fed meeting on Wednesday.(A Commentary)

Oil.(A Commentary)

Israel government changes.(A Commentary)

Duelling infrastructure bills in US.(A Commentary)

Canadian financials in general.(A Commentary)

Crypto.(A Commentary)

Educational Segment. (A Commentary)

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research.(A Commentary)

Market. (A Commentary)

A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert(A Commentary)

A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert(A Commentary)

Market rotation.(A Commentary)

Inflation.(A Commentary)

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