A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

The weekly US jobless report disappointed today The Fed is doing everything right and the markets look great. but he doesn't know how long it will last. In the past 7-8 years, there are a couple down days, the market forgets why it went down, then we're off to the races. The market fails to recognize that age inflation is here and isn't going away. When the market figures that out, the US 10-year yield will be much higher.

The Reddit/meme short-sellers (i.e. AMC this week) soaring 83%. Short-sellers aren't going after retail investors, but bad companies. Price can be truth in that a company can issue shares at a higher price, but it doesn't change a company's business. Cinemark, for example, isn't going through a share price surge like AMC. Investing with an incentive to track momentum is what professional investors do, but this is not a case of Us. vs Them, David vs. Goliath, retail investors vs. Wall Street.

The US weekly jobless report disappointed today The VIX plunged 9% today, the dollar is down again, gold rallied, and megacap tech ourtperformed as the US 10-year fell. Today is a case of the market heading into the weekend seemingly with having no cares in the world with the Fed on the sidelines, and this worries him.

The weekly US jobless report disappointed today, the US 10-year declined, so there was a sweet spot for megacap tech today. Yes, but in the short term. Ultiamtely, we want unemployment to decline further. She doesn't want any sudden moves by the Fed, the markets or from economic data. Of course, she would have liked a better jobs report and more job growth, but today was okay, fine. A hot job number would have triggered market multiple compression.

The effect of wage inflation expected to impact the US economy It's slightly better for the consumer--giving them more money--than for stocks, at least in theory.

Breaking news that Pres. Biden has rejected the Republicans' latest proposal of the infrastructure bill. Biden can't get it done with just his party's votes; he needs to Repbulicans. This impasse is troubling, because a lot of the current market rally depends on passing this infrastructure bill, so the market can rally even further.

Today, the weekly US jobless report disappointed The market lately has really been performing well. The US 10-year yield is trading between 1.55% and 1.74%. If that breaks down, we lose value. If that breaks above, we lose tech. If you're a market index investor, you hope we break down. As long as stay right, it's perfect for all investors.

Social media frenzied stocks. A sideshow circus. He doesn't waste time thinking about what speculators are doing. There's always some new shiny object to look at. Who needs dividends and pesky taxes when you get free popcorn for buying shares of AMC?

TSX hitting 20,000. He scored metrics on all of the major developed market global equity indices, and the TSX edges out all others on valuation. It's all the more compelling given that Canada's poised to post its strongest economic growth in 35 years, where GDP forecasts are estimated at north of 6%, which is triple the long-term average growth rate. Corporate earnings have roared back. Index earnings for 2021 are forecast to eclipse the former all-time high by over 10%. Tailwinds include a rip-roaring bull market in commodities, and the Canadian index has 73% of its companies in cyclically sensitive sectors like financials, consumer discretionary, materials, industrials. He upweighted Canadian equities at the beginning of the year.

Economic strength merely a bounceback from the pandemic? It is, but the real tell is that corporate earnings are forecast to hit an all-time high. The Y/Y comparisons from 2020 are going to be sensational. But if you compare 2021 to 2019, we're going to be at a new peak. Over the long haul, stock prices follow corporate earnings.

Canadian banks. He'd buy the Canadian banks now. He owns 3 of them. Good companies. Core holdings. Maximum pressure on net interest margins should start to ease in the back half of the year. We're at the maximum trough point for reversing credit losses. Later this year, investors should get good news on dividend increases and share buybacks. They've never been this well capitalized. If you wait for a pullback, you miss the forest for the trees. Don't do that.

Canadian lumber stocks. Excellent example of the market being a forward-looking, discounting mechanism. BAM has disposed of all of their WFG shares, a noteworthy sale. Indicates the top of the cycle. None of the producers are timely right now.

Finding good buys. There's always something to buy. Broad indices have done really well this year, so it's trickier on a whole to find opportunities. Broad indices have masked tumult under the surface. Pain in tech and tech-enabled, such as clean tech and renewable power. He's finding opportunities in higher growth names that he thinks have sold off too much.

Sectors in focus. Tech, renewable energy, food and agriculture. When people talk about sustainability, the conversation usually centres on energy and utilities. But the food industry is responsible for over 25% of GHG emissions. He's looking for companies using tech to feed the world as well as reduce emissions. People will look at the world more and more through this lens.

Geography for renewables. Canadian and the US have great renewable companies. On sustainability, Europe has been a leader in clean power and in food. Overseas, they've seen severe weakness in certain names. Some of his favourite stocks are still overseas.