Market Commentary — Page 246

Market Commentary

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Recommendation for funds taken out of AMZN-Q. He would not exit completely as they are so dominant. They are a major player in cloud. He would look at semiconductors, SMH-N (ETF), Qualcom, Salesforce.

BUY

Top 2 or 3 ETFs until 2022. He likes SMH-N - semiconductors. XLF-N still has upside as the financials have underperformed. Canadian banks stick out as well. They are sitting on a whack of cash and have not been able to raise dividends. They will probably take some loan loss provisions back into earnings soon.

COMMENT

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. It’s best not to flip back and forth between growth and value. Growth overall is still preferred in the longer term, but you must be ready for higher volatility. Market rotations can last 3 - 6 months. Things will eventually settle down. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT

There are two markets, one thriving, the other tumbling today. The old-fashioned cyclicals are roaring, the boom stocks. In contrast, there are stocks bought by the young drawn in by Robinhood fee-free trades. There's no crossover. Ingersoll Rand? Honeywell? Wells Fargo? Too boring to the younger generation who want excitement like Tesla. Also, Zoom, cruise stocks and SPACs have been killed lately.

COMMENT

Oil stocks and renewables. Likes renewables a lot. Have likes Algonquin but it is now expensive. Oil stocks are unbelievably cheap. A year ago, their balance sheets were a mess. However, the balance sheets are now looking good and valuations are good. Suncor is the best among the large players. Arc and Whitecap are looking good. The caveat is that you need a higher commodity price and the supply side usually responds.

COMMENT

Canadian dollar. There is a definite boon in the commodity prices, and yield is higher than US bonds. The Canadian dollar can go up more. He would buy the US listed Canadian companies that are inter-listed, rather than converting US dollars to Canadian. The CAD will probably continue to go up steadily.

COMMENT

Market outlook. Before dot com ended in tears, there were lots of run up. There is a compelling case how bitcoins can work. It is a very binary thesis. It could worth zero if it is not widely adopted. There are pockets of froth and it is a crowded market. People are universally bullish, which is concerning. The better view is that the markets will grind higher in the next year.

COMMENT

Recovery. Economic recovery is going well. Data is showing positive moves, savings rates are super good and interest rates are retracing. The crisis has led to lots of innovation and productivity gains. 2023 estimates before the crisis were actually worse than 2023 estimates following the crisis due to productivity gains and lower interest rates.

COMMENT

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Value stocks and financials are seeing strong performance. Certain sectors are seeing a steep correction. Growth fundamentals remain pretty good. Selling can cause more selling for growth stocks especially. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT

Cryptocurrency. It's getting a lot of attention, especially as prices go up. Coinbase is a bit different, as there's more of a business model behind it. She's just watching to see how the space evolves. A difficult investment to make to generate long-term, sustainable returns. Volatile. More attention will also garner more regulatory scrutiny.

COMMENT

Economic recovery. Yes, predicated on 2 things. Extraordinary stimulus (as in the US) plus an effective vaccine rollout (as in the UK). In those countries, economic growth momentum will pick up sooner. In Canada, logistical issues will eventually get resolved. Our recovery will be somewhat uneven, but the trend is upward.

COMMENT

Gold. Stock price moves as the underlying commodity moves. Gold has pulled back, and the USD should start strengthening, which also works against gold prices. She has no money in the sector right now. She prefers producers with very little political risk.

COMMENT

Bitcoin. Even if it doesn't end well, is there an opportunity in the short to medium term? As central banks move ahead with digital currencies, they will look at existing cryptocurrencies with a great deal of suspicion and regulations will be implemented. A preferable way to be involved is through semiconductors, the picks and shovels of cypto mining. Digital currency will empower payment networks and banks that are most ahead in digital, and the long-term winners will be the existing businesses that are most adapted to the digital world. Both JPM and First Republic have significant investments in digital banking, and these will pay off.

COMMENT

Let winners run? He lets winners run. Warren Buffett says that selling your winners to buy more of your losers is like cutting your flowers to water your weeds. But there's a limit to how far you let your winners run. Can't let them run beyond control. Remember the lesson of Valeant; it was punishing when it pulled back. He has about 25 positions. He trims winners. There are risks associated with a winner becoming too big a position. A financial advisor can help navigate this.

COMMENT

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. International stocks remain cheaper at these levels compared to Canadian or US. Holding tech stocks is still a good choice even with rising interest rates. Consumer cyclical and industrials remain good sectors for recovery plays. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Recommendation for funds taken out of AMZN-Q. (A Commentary)

Top 2 or 3 ETFs until 2022. (A Commentary)

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research.(A Commentary)

A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert(A Commentary)

Oil stocks and renewables.(A Commentary)

Canadian dollar.(A Commentary)

Market outlook.(A Commentary)

Recovery.(A Commentary)

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research.(A Commentary)

Cryptocurrency.(A Commentary)

Economic recovery.(A Commentary)

Gold.(A Commentary)

Bitcoin.(A Commentary)

Let winners run?(A Commentary)

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research.(A Commentary)

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