A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Tonight’s show was a special on the Federal Budget 2017. Viewers were to call in as to how the new budget would affect them. Out of the 3 panelists, only one, Christine Poole, was actually in the investment area. In the first 30 minutes, there were no questions on any individual stocks, and very little discussion on the market. Also, with 3 panellists, it was very hard to track and cover who was saying what. Because of this, I have decided to forgo doing tonight’s show. Bill.

Market. This is an expensive market. Of course, valuation is not necessarily a timing tool, but you do have to keep your seatbelt fastened. The market is up 10% since election day, up 15%-16% just in the last year. PEs are the highest they have been since the dot.com bubble. Dividend yields are trying to hold on to the 2% level, so by that level, things are pricey. We are in a situation where interest rates are going up. The Fed has hiked 3 times, and have promised to hike twice more this year. Higher interest rates are never a positive for the market. People have to be cautious here. Short-term traders are looking at what is going on in Washington. The market has grown like a bat out of hell since election day, on the hopes and prospects of very progressive policies from the new administration. However, that is not a slam-dunk, as the Republicans are not united. A lot of strategists are now looking at what is going on with Obamacare. If they feel the Republicans, who did not support Obamacare, are not able to repeal it, what does that mean for Trump’s success in getting the rest of his progress policies enacted anytime soon?

Market. We are in a bull market. When corrections come in a bull market, they are swift and can be painful for a few days, but are generally over pretty quickly. People have made a big deal about not having a 1% down move in over 100 days. If you look at history, this has happened about 10 times over the last 30 years, and the returns that came 3 months, 6 months, 9 months afterwards were way above average. When you have long periods of time when volatility has been low as it has been, and then you have that 1% day, people tend to think of it as a shakeout. The most difficult thing in a bull market is to stay positioned. As a market analyst, from a whole bunch of different angles, the market continues to look very constructive, and it would be healthy to have a few sloppy days. The key themes that are in this market, are firmly in place. In Canada, about 50% of stocks are in long-term positive uptrends that has been slowly rising. In the US, it is about 66%. In the last 2 months, when the market has been treading water, the average hedge fund has gone from 110% to 115% Long to 80% Long indicating there has been tremendous profit taking over the last 2 months. This tells you how strong the bid is under the market because there has been really no downside.

Energy. He got quite bullish on energy in Jan/Feb 2016 as breadth started to improve. In the last 6 weeks, breadth for the energy sector started to contract. Oil consolidated sideways for a couple of months. In energy, in almost all cases, they break down from there. You are facing a big headwind at the sector level. Fracing has made energy a mass manufacturer. That is why production of oil in the US is up 700,000 barrels since last February, and storage is at an all-time high. If you want to be in energy, which is a tough space right now, you want to be in a low-cost producer that will be able to take share. He owns virtually no energy.

US defence stocks for a long-term hold? Defence is a theme he has been focused on for a couple of years. We have been coming off multiyear lows in growth in defence spending. There is going to be more defence spending going forward. He likes that the contracts are really long term and have a pretty good credit behind them. Also, it is the only type of company that never talks about what is coming next. Raytheon (RTN-N), General Dynamics (GD-N) and Lockheed Martin (LMT-N) are very attractive.

North American rails and Hunter Harrison? Transports were the 1^st group to roll over in the spring of 2015, and one of the 1^st groups to turn up in February in 2016 as the market started to repair itself. They’ve gotten a little sloppy recently. Within the group, you have the airlines, and a couple of the US airlines have gotten a little sloppy. There are a couple of rails that have become sloppier. When he looks at the group, Canadian National (CNR-T) is probably the most attractive, and looks very, very good. CSX (CSX-Q) has been the leader in the rally, and in the short run it may have been based on “buy the rumour, sell the news”, and is now pulling back, possibly to $38-$39.

G20 Statement. Although tepid, he thinks they are supporting free trade, but probably under a lot of duress from the first real official global meeting with the Trump policy being pushed towards the world. The US is the biggest economy in the world, so what they want tends to typically happen. This is why markets were concerned about the anti-trade, and the original reason why futures market sold off aggressively the night of the election. It is concerning. However, it is not measured in weeks and days or the next tick on the chart; it is a long-term strategic policy. While he is very optimistic and bullish on the need for lower taxes overall, he is concerned about the lack of trade. However, we have seen slower trade globally. Looking at the Baltic Dry Index and the freight rates that are being charged, they have been in a slow decline for years, so it is not anything new. If the biggest economy, the US, is not participating, there will be less trade globally. The US has a surplus against Canada and are not really fighting us, but they’ve made strong statements on softwood lumber as an example. They have a deficit against Mexico, which is where they want to improve and bring stuff and make America great again, and America 1^st. We are going to see lots of this for years to come.

Crude oil. He is not bearish in that we are going back to the $20s, but he wants to see what OPEC is going to do. There is some compliance, but it is Saudi Arabia that is more compliant than a lot of the other partners. There is some weakness in OPEC, which is what he expected. Oil shouldn’t be at $55, but should probably be closer to $45.

BREXIT. The biggest thing from their perspective is, what does Scotland do. Scotland wants to hold a referendum in late 2018 or early 2019. Once they go through the two-year period of the negotiations to either stay or not stay, it is a mess. We haven’t felt one iota of economic impact in terms of trade, etc., and we probably won’t know for a year, or maybe 2, on how this plays out. It does speak to the fact that the UK and the EU doesn’t work, and eventually it is going to start coming apart. This is just the beginning.

Sectors with the best value right now? A couple of weeks ago, low volatility areas had been underperforming significantly. Markets have been strong since the Trump election, up 10%, 15%, 20% depending on where you look and what sectors. Low volatility sectors like utilities, consumer staples have underperformed. Those sectors, right now, screen as cheap because they are much more defensive. What typically happens with fund managers, is when they are positive on the outlook for the market, they are investing in more cyclicals; whether consumer, industrial or technology, companies that are going to get much more of a beta lift when the markets are doing well. When the markets are expected to correct, they can’t go to cash, most managers have to stay fully invested. They sell their consumer cyclical and they buy a consumer staple; they sell their industrial and buy a health care; sell their financial and buy a utility. This takes down their beta or their sensitivity to the downside. The low volume sectors are somewhat attractive right now compared to some of the more cyclical sectors.

Sectors you like and dislike? Real estate is interest rate sensitive, so not his favourite right now. He is underweight. What is really cheap? A couple of days ago, gold was cheap and he was nibbling in this sector. However, if you are talking about a strategy for the long-term, the next 2, 3, 5 years, financials in the US are still pretty cheap. When he is tactical, and moving money around pretty actively, he is looking out 3 months, maybe 6. He has no idea what is going to happen 4 or 5 years from now.

Educational Segment: Long-Term Investing. This is on geopolitical and global macro, because a lot of global hedge funds macro views and look for themes in markets. This week, Canada has their budget. Global investors look at things like this and look for what is diverging and what is different, and is it good or bad compared to others. The US is cutting taxes, both corporate and personal, while Canada is raising taxes. Global money follows the flow of funds. Canada has net outflows on capital account, net outflows on current account, so we run trade deficits. There is less money coming into Canada so the global investors see that Canada is vulnerable and if they Short Canada as well as the currency, will the Bank of Canada raise rates? Investing in Canada has a lot to do with oil, and as oil goes, so goes the TSX.

If the budget is as bad as he thinks it is going to be, in terms of taxing capital and savings, you use inverse ETF’s. HBP 60 Inverse ETF (HIX-T) is an inverse play on the TSX 60. While Canada is somewhat cheap this year, it is only going to grow at 1.5% a year over the next 5 years, and only because they are borrowing money.

Markets. YOMO (Year of Missing Out) is a great description of the Toronto housing market, but we are also starting to get this in equity markets. Stocks are moving, but simply because everyone is afraid to Sell as you don’t want to miss out, and valuations are starting to get stretched, and no one wants to get out of equities because Donald Trump is going to solve all the world’s problems. We have seen this great interest rate increase, which is usually a sign of good times, but investors are already paying for the tax that is going to get cut, and we are already paying for the regulations that are going to get cut. If people’s expectations are not filled, they tend to get disappointed, and the next response is to Sell.

When will Canadian banks have stock splits? The time is close. Once they get over the $100-$120 level, it is probably time for a split. Splits don’t matter. They are just basically creating more shares at less price.

Zinc. Inventories are down and supply is limited. Chinese are shutting some capacity in, in terms of the refining of the raw metal. Zinc is on a roll. It has been tight, and will probably stay tight as mines have shut down. There is no reason the price cannot spike up to the $2 levels. The best 3 plays in Canada are Teck Resources (TECK.B-T), the world’s largest net zinc producer; Hudbay Minerals (HBM-T) an intermediate play; Trevali Mining (TV-T) a more junior company.