A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Silicon Valley Bank could be the first chapter of an ugly story for the regional banking industry. Its failure could cause confidence problems in some regional banks with corporations pulling back from the extra yield and putting money in the safer major banks like JP Morgan even though the interest rate is less. However this is nothing like the financial crisis of 2008. The large central banks are in excellent shape with much stronger regulation than the regional banks. TD is under some pressure because of its ownership of Schwab, but there is no need to worry since it is one of the top U.S. banks and in great financial shape. The situation with SVB could make one re-think the whole industry.

A lot of corporations and sectors are already reflecting the higher cost of borrowing and one outcome might be the Fed slowing down the pace of rate increases. This would be positive for the markets. The market expects rate increases and the economy to slow down so there are a lot attractively priced stocks now.

The question was on gold and silver. He has never owned shares of gold and silver companies. In days like today they go up and then fall back later.

The question was on Emerging markets bonds. There is no guarantee of getting your money back. The yield isn't worth the risk.

Some comments at the end of the show: he owns Disney which should become profitable after big losses due to the streaming component. Netflix is not as good since it is a 'one trick pony' when compared to Amazon and Disney.

The Fed may finally halt interest rates, but for unexpected reasons. Instead of cooling inflation, we are seeing a bank run which could get worse if the Fed gets less aggressive and grows more concerned about bank closures and seizures. Short-term interest rates plummeted and today regional shares slid as much as 60%. The Fed will announce its decision next week. They could raise by only 25 basis points then hold, or stay put. That's the chatter on the street. So far, we dodged a bullet today when the FDIC stepped in (to take protect all of SVB's depositers). If they hadn't, we would have been in a recession by week's end. We need to stop the run on regional bank stocks.

No. Bitcoin is a strange animal. It was being manipulated all the time by Sam Bankman-Fried, and could still be manipulated by somebody. He once believed in Bitcoin, but not now.

Money managers have their second-largest short position in bonds since 2018. SVB's collapse throws bonds into a tailspin and it's a matter of time before treasury yields come back down too. He can't see the Fed raising rates at its torrid pace. If tomorrow's CPI number is hot, maybe they will hike 25 basis points then hold. That's it. The US 10-year yield has plunged from 4.0% to 3.5% in a week. If you're worried about banks going under, it's better to put your money into US treasuries. Long-term treasury yields are headed a lot lower, a tremendous boon to the stock market which is tremendously contrarian call.

Believes market over bought in February. 5-6% market pullback not a surprise for her.
Second half of February historically weakest time of the year.
US Fed actions causing uncertainty among investors.  
Thinks more volatility to come. 
Looking into defensive names with quality names.
Expecting economic recovery in second half of this year. 

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We don't know if there will be contagion or fall-out after the collapse of SVB today, the Silicon Valley bank. There will be major losses of anything connected to SVB. However, the silver lining is that the Fed may slow or pause its aggressive interest rate hikes. Jay Powell wants to apply the brakes on the economy, but not cause a pile-up. Stay the course. He actually picked up some shares today. SVB could derail the tech/growth economy, but could slow Fed hikes.

He's pretty constructive on markets. The important development we're starting to see is a series of higher highs and higher lows, which is the definition of a new uptrend. His work says that the market put in an important low on 13 October 2022. On a 1-year chart, we're now coming right to some pretty important technical support. The market reaction to jobs numbers tomorrow will be pretty important, but right now it's pretty positive that we're holding the line.

Yes, the big driver is inflation and what the Fed's going to do about it. Since October, he's been telling clients that we're in a higher-for-longer (HFL) cycle. The market is rewarding 3 main beneficiaries of this: financials, industrials, materials. Dividend payers, especially, in all those areas are doing really well. His technical works is showing that those are the outperformers in the market right now. 

Not as much because they're returning capital, and a lot are older companies not as focused on R&D. It's the growth-oriented companies, like those in IT or communication services, that are going to be hampered by higher rates.