A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Nova Scotia Power Bonds 6.95% August 25, 2033. The fall in long term interest rates really benefited this security. Holding it going forward means you have a long way to maturity. If it is the only long term maturity it may be okay. Otherwise move to 3-5 year paper.

Sovereign European Bonds. In the last year and a bit we saw significant convergence. There are still opportunities such as Spain. 6% bond with a 5 year maturity. Likes the risk reward of the name. Thinks it is unlikely that the EU will fall back into recession.

2021 Canada Real Return Bond. Real rates have fallen in the last couple of years. This could be held until maturity. Longer maturities should be avoided.

ICASA Bond 8.875% due May 29, 2024. Involved in infrastructure build out. They got downgraded last year. He likes the name and the Mexican story.

Portfolios. Now is probably not a bad time, at midyear, to actually start looking back to your plan in terms of what your asset mix ought to be, and rebalancing. He has been taking some money out of equity, and putting it into cash for the time being. He’ll then be deploying it into income for the remainder of the quarter. Now is the time to take some profits and sell some winners, putting that money into things that have done a little less well.

What’s the best way to play a rising rate environment in both the short and long-term? This is a bit of a misnomer. We are not in a rising rate environment. We are, and have been in a flat rate environment for the past 3 years, and expect it will persist for at least 1 more year. Because of this, you are going to be getting low single-digit on any kind of single debt instrument, no matter what you do. He is using a lot of equity linked GICs, which are structured products, and are tied to the stock market, but guaranteed not to lose money.

An ETF that can be contributed to on a monthly basis? There are 4-6 Claymore products that offer this as well as Purpose products. You can get this in the iShare’s or Purpose’s websites.

Using a tax shelter to reduce income down to a point where you are paying tax in a lower bracket. He still suggests this, but the only kind of a tax shelter he uses are called “oil and gas flow throughs”. There are companies in the extraction business that have provisions that were put in the income tax act 40 years ago. They allow companies that were involved in extraction, to flow through the deductions that they would normally be entitled to as corporations, to the underlying unit holders.

Are index ETF’s a good buy now, or should I wait until the market pulls back? The US S&P is fine, and hitting new all-time highs, but he would suggest that you not just look at North America. Something that invests globally would be a better way to do it. He would suggest (VT-N) or (XWD-T). Don’t wait for a pullback.

US Economics. Had a nice Jobs Report which reversed the 1^st quarter softness that seem to have people worried and concerned. There is some improvement in higher paying wages, which gave him some comfort.

US Market. The big question is, has it already been bought and paid for. US market is riding this wave of liquidity that has been pumped in since the bottom of 2009. Money drives interest rates lower, and when that happens, people look for alternative places to put their money, and stocks have been the place to be. Up to this year, the US stock market has been the best market in the world. From a valuation perspective, it looks a little rich. Canadian market is not a bad place to be.

Energy. Up 30% year-over-year, and is now trading at 29X earnings. Keeps wondering if this is a little rich. However, 1-1.5 years ago, differentials between the different types of oil, were very, very wide and have now narrowed. This means more money for Canadian producers, which gives a lift to stocks. International investors are now coming back.

Canadian Banks, based on real estate risk and likelihood of higher rates? Without some major catastrophe, our real estate market is not going to bury the Canadian banks. Real estate exposure today is nothing like the oil/gas exposure was way, way back. We have a banking system that will probably survive any real estate malady.

Markets. The problem with the TSX is that you have a large component of resources, which throws off the PE multiple. Cdn and US markets are fairly valued, but there are still lots of areas where you can invest and make a decent return. You’re not going to see some of the returns that you saw in the last 5 years, but you will see a reasonable rate of return of about 8%-10%. He feels very comfortable that the stock market will continue to do well over the next couple of years. Looks for stock price increases, but also for dividends. You can buy some really great companies that pay a very good dividend, and that have great balance sheets.

European banks? Thinks banks globally are going to do better because the economy is turning around. Deutsche Bank (DB-N) is highly levered to the capital markets as opposed to retail. Because of this, you are playing a capital markets bank, and if that’s the case, he would rather buy Goldman Sachs (GS-N). There are a lot of European banks that are trading at a very large discount to their BV.