A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Precious metals. How would this be affected by a US military strike on Syria as well as the US tapering? We seemed to have passed the days when crises made a huge impact on gold. Gold is moving and gold stocks are quite solid at their retreated price. Gold is getting more difficult to find at any grade so it is a good thing to hold. Doesn’t think quantitative easing has anything to do with gold.

Markets. Favourable towards the energy sector right now. Just bought iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Energy ETF (XEG-T) for newer clients in June. Nothing was happening to clarify how oil was going to be getting to market but this has now become a lot clearer. Also, likes because it is Obtionable. September can be a very volatile month and there could be opportunities. Still very bullish on the US and if he sees a significant pullback he’ll be in. He insulates himself from volatility through asset allocation. You have to have something in the market that is not in equities. He has bonds, even though the yields are awful.

An ETF for income? First thing he would say is ”never trust yield”. When you see a quoted yield, don’t believe it. You have to look at what the yield to maturity is, not the distribution yield. He likes the iShares DEX Short-Term Bond (XSB-T). They handle the issue of premium bonds very well. He also likes the BMO Covered Call Cdn Banks ETF (ZWB-T). Right now he is being quite cautious on the income bond side. See Top (Picks.)

On large-cap dividend paying stocks, would you recommend selling “deep in money” Calls? Wouldn’t do this unless you want to lose the stocks. The trouble is, you’re not getting any time premium and that is what you want in Options. If you’ve got a stock that is $50 and you Sell a $45 $5 deep in the money Option, you are only going to get $0.50 in time value.

Do you have a REIT ETF that you would recommend? He has basically gotten out of his REITs, basically because of his concerns on interest rates. However, there is no reason to dismiss any from your portfolio. Just keep a smaller portion of them.

Markets. Expects improvements in the US economy to continue. Age demographics in the US favour buying a house and putting stuff in it rather than having already bought it. You should see an acceleration in home ownership levels which are the lowest since 1995. You want consumer, industrials, technology and financial sectors to be overweight. Any attack on Syria will have a short lived effect on the markets, with any effect being a buying opportunity.

Markets. There are a lot of potential bumps down the road. Will the Fed taper in September? The debt ceiling is approaching and they have a bad track record. The issue with Syria. Stress in the emerging markets related to the tapering threat. His view is that he errs on the side of not losing money so there are risks and he is protecting capital until things clear up. He holds cash – over 30%. It is dry powder for him if the market is going to go higher. He likes large caps, North American free cash flow companies. There are industries that have transformed themselves through the crisis and have potential to be much better than before. He stays away from money center banks. Prefers US regional banks. He likes automotive as it runs off a bottom, being transformed off bankruptcy. Tech is popular but he will not get into high multiples but rather those with more predictable cash flows. He also likes airlines.

Economy. Companies have very low debt levels and have lots of cash on their balance sheets. The trouble is, debt was shifted to households and governments. Government debts are at a very high level which means there is going to be constant fiscal restraint in the US and globally, which will keep a cap on inflation. This also adds to slower growth globally. When a government is restrained like this, you have slower growth and higher unemployment for an extended period of time. With this, you have to think of the implications for the stock markets and the bond markets. As a sector, the US banking sector is a great place to be. The economy is improving, housing is getting better, the consumer is getting better, etc.

Global Markets. He is expecting global stocks to outperform over the next few years. If you are looking for above average returns over the next few years, stocks are the place to be. Believes that the commodity headwinds we have been seeing, will not affect those kinds of stocks because, when you look at the global marketplace, the commodity portion of those indexes is much smaller relative to Canada, Australia, etc. He would advise investors to reduce weightings in commodities. This industry will be challenged for the next couple of years.

Markets. US is obviously the most favoured nation in terms of flows. It is attracting inflows like a magnet right now, much more so than the rest of the world. There are very good reasons for that. You have household that are spending money again, home prices are improving, auto sales are improving, businesses are spending money and investing in hiring people and banks are lending again. Emerging markets will ultimately be considered as stocks on sale, but currently is still a falling knife. There are dark clouds gathering over emerging markets because of slowing growth and falling commodity prices.

Energy. Have been some positive developments on the macro side. Price of oil has moved significantly since May. Differential has shrunk quite a bit, partly because of refinery turnarounds as well as crude by rail. Crude by rail has been up 30% quarter over quarter which has helped alleviate the differential. Regarding the Syrian situation, there seems to always be a headline every so often resulting in a price increase premium in crude. However, oil has been trading up quite constructively in the last few months. She feels it could go to $130.

Canadian Drillers. Drilling activity in Canada is up year-over-year and we are seeing data points that are positive. Still down in the US. BC drilling activity is up 50% year-over-year. She is positively constructive on the drillers. We are entering the strong season, Q3 and Q4, for the drillers when the ground is harder and there is no flooding.

Markets. Thinks for the next 2 or 3 months, the market will go sideways. There are too many uncertainties in the short-term, such as what happens in Syria which could possibly result in the closing of the Suez Canal, driving up the cost of international shipping. Also, there is the outlook for interest rates. Feels we have seen the worst of the rise for the time being.

REITs. H&R, Artis, Chartwell and Riocan peaked about April 29/13 and declined quite a bit. As an example, the yield on H&R was 5.36% and is now 6.45%, an increase of 117 basis points and somewhat similar for the other 3. Looking at the 10 year Canada’s, they are only up about 95 basis points. He doesn’t think higher interest rates necessarily hurt the REITs, providing rates go up in the moderate fashion. This is a great time to own them.

Markets. Syria is creating problems. There always seems to be something in the Middle East that is affecting oil prices, stocks and confidence in the market. For something like this, he just sits on the sideline. Doesn’t jump in aggressively. He’ll wait until this shakes out. His theme is expected growth in the US. Avoiding sectors that will be a value trap. His portfolio has become very un-Canadian, not very resource heavy other than the lumber stocks which are more exposed to the US.