A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

BUY
Japan ETF? 22 years ago, half the stock market value in the world was all Japan and yet now it has been in a bear market for about 20 years. Cheap markets at about 10X earnings so he likes it. There are a couple of good ETF's out there such as iShares Japan C$ Hedge ETF (CJP-T) and iShares MSCI Japan Small Cap ETF (SCJ-N).
DON'T BUY
Gold. 60% of position in XGD-T and 40% into ZJG-T late summer, early fall. Good strategy? Good strategy but he is not very bullish on gold, as gold companies are having some issues environmentally and social issues. If you look at gold in the recession of 07 and 09, gold did not perform very well at all. Gold does not like recessions but performs better after difficult times. It performed well from 09 to the present because of the Feds QE2. If we see QE3 gold will go higher.
COMMENT
Interest rates. GDP numbers were disappointing today indicating a contraction in February which dampened expectations that the Bank of Canada would be raising rates anytime soon. For a fixed income person, this is all pretty normal and is part of the cycle. Feels that we are 12-24 months away from the Bank of Canada doing anything substantial.
COMMENT
Would you purchase zero coupon bonds for a retirement portfolio and are they safe? When looking at these, you should 1) look at the term i.e. how long they run and 2) the credit rating of the company. Most of these are pretty safe.
COMMENT
Perpetual versus Callable Preferreds? Given the background of interest rate increases, he doesn't think there is a lot of danger in perpetuals. About 40% of his fund is geared towards perpetuals.
COMMENT
When do you sell for a gain, a Reset Preferred resetting in 2014? As you get closer to the reset date of 2014, the company will have an option to call it back or redeem it from you. Up to that date, it will start eroding back to $25. A lot of people have started trimming them off already in order to lock in their capital gain.
COMMENT
Is it a little early to get into floating rate bonds given that interest rates are not likely to rise? Yes that is correct. Use these in a rising rate environment.
COMMENT
Markets. This is a market where investors are continually searching for good news and overreacting whenever there is any positive or negative announcement. GDP growth is very slow and we are coming out of a financial recession. Consumers are paying off debt which takes a period of time. Unfortunately, our governments are going further into debt. Expect we will continue to see very choppy growth in employment. Value investors will be able to pick their spots as markets retreat from time to time. People should be prepared to take profits when action is on the positive side.
COMMENT
Gold. BRICS Countries (Bazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa)) recently stated they will be setting up their own banking system. Gold will give these nations a monetary constant, which they need to do business among themselves. We are seeing a breakup of the current monetary system that no longer works. The only way to keep the current system is to print money, which is very good for precious metals. What is happening to the BRICS nations is even better, because no one is paying attention to it.
BUY
Molybdenum? Used for rust prevention, especially on pipelines. In order to replace old pipelines, we need more molybdenum.
COMMENT
Markets. Last year Europe was not on most investors’ radar screen. Now everyone is hunkered down and ready for it. Also thinks the policymakers are a little bit further along. Any sort of weakness you get from Europe, at some point you are going to want to add to quality positions. There are a lot of supportive factors such as the Fed yesterday, China that has widened their currency band and earnings in the US have been great. Valuations are still relatively attractive.
COMMENT
Sentry Canadian Income Fund? Claim they can take some of the volatility out of investing but still returning their dividend income monthly. MER is over 2%. Thoughts? Mutual funds can be a very good way to go. If you have good active management that can really identify the companies that are more likely to grow their dividends, it is worth it to pay for that active management.
COMMENT
RRIF. Canadian dividend stock versus GIC? Depends on your risk tolerance. You are better off having a dividend stock in a taxable account so you can enjoy the dividend tax credit. He would prefer dividend stocks.
COMMENT
Economy. US Federal Reserve has reconfirmed they are not going to raise rates for quite a while. Even more important, it doesn't look like QE 3 is going to happen. There is enough liquidity in the system. Economy is growing; it just doesn't feel that great. Still has high unemployment and GDP growth of 2%-2.5%.
COMMENT
City of Toronto bonds? Most cities are not allowed to run deficits so the credit quality of cities generally is a great thing to have. Has never owned city bonds as the spread is not great enough for him. He prefers AA or BBB bonds.
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