A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT
Natural gas. Still hasn't formed a bottom. This year's weather has created a lot of problems. It could drag on for a while yet. Long-term, it is probably a good theme but if you are going to look at natural gas, you have to look for the infrastructure i.e. companies that are building pipelines and LNG for export.
COMMENT
Employment. US Non-Farm Payrolls chart’s pattern is quite bullish. There was a consolidation up to 2008 followed by a breakdown. It then rallied back to above the support line. He feels it is forming a symmetrical triangle and is trying to break out to the upside. This is a very bullish chart.
COMMENT
Silver. Chart shows a very complicated correction. It had its spike in March reaching $49. In August, quite high while silver was down at $43, which he feels was an early warning on precious metals. Chart shows a very serious 5 wave correction. It is now back to the support level of about $27 and he thinks the correction is probably over for now. The equity side is probably a better trade.
COMMENT
Markets. There will be some very good opportunities this year but you will have to continue to be targeted. If you can focus on where the money is going there is some money to be made. It's a stock pickers market and a market where you are going to have to continue to be tactical and pick your spots. He continues to favour midstream energy companies that are providing infrastructure to the energy industry. Continues to favour that REITs as well as large-cap global dividend payers, where the cash flows are stable.
COMMENT
Oil. The one risk that we face in the energy space is that oil prices are elevated because of what is going on in Iran. Consumption in the US was down year-over-year in December and there is a bunch of new production coming on. It is not impossible that prices back off a little bit here.
COMMENT
For people who want to follow when callers call in on specific stocks, they can go to apps.facebook.com/modelprice and you'll see the graph that Brian actually sees in terms of model price and other work that he does so you can actually see what he does and play along.
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Markets: There are three clouds – Slow growth in the US. This could be the year the housing surplus starts to disappear in the US and is the reason there are missing jobs. While china is slowing, he doesn’t see it slowing below 8% and that will keep the companies up. Third, Europe debt situation. He sees rates coming down and successful bond auctions. That will be the one that is back and forth and has some volatility to it. If the Iranians block the straights the price of oil could go up to $130 and shock the world economy. The US election could cause uncertainty to deepen in the US but that doesn’t seem likely at present. Volatility will not be as heightened as it was last year. It was quite irrational.
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Squeezed a little bit of profits out of the markets last year. Tech Analysis allows you to become profitable as a opposed to be a victim. In 2012 he looks forward to more volatility. A trader should not become a victim. The first last 8-9 months were very traditional trading patterns but then Europe happened and it became a news flow oriented market. He would say that the trading patters in 2012 will become somewhat more normalized.
COMMENT
Oil: Has some significant resistance at $104 and it is just coming into that right now. Downtrend was broken and we got the rally and top level is $104. Will it break that? Just trade based on what happens. Sideways trend as opposed to down trend.
COMMENT
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COMMENT
Markets were up today because a lot of China, India, Europe and even the US Purchasing Manufacturing Indexes were up. This is a sign of economic expansion. This was combined with some year-end window dressing being reversed. Also, you generally find the 1st day of the new year is higher. Europe is still the wild card that needs to be solved and thinks we are in a European recession but North America avoids a recession.
COMMENT
Silver. Good time to get in? He treats this as a poor man's gold. At least in gold you have some feeling that it is a form of insurance, alternative currency, safety, etc. He prefers companies with high production growth, such as Tahoe (THO-T), rather than just own silver.
COMMENT
Markets. Thinks we are stuck in a trading range until the markets get sorted out with respect to what does growth look like, where does growth come from and how do we resolve their debt problems of the Western world. There is not much growth baked into 2012.
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2012 will be a great year to make money if you know what you are doing. You have to know when key events are going to happen. Presidential election will have a big impact. We are now at the end of the period of the Santa clause rally. When companies come out with 4’th quarter guidance, there will be a lot of revision downward. In a typical election year there is a great move upward after the election. It varies depending on who gets elected. It should rally until September. A new rally starts in October. The Toronto market should be flat for the year, but with lots of ups and downs. Sectors doing the worst in 2011 like energy, precious metals, which did badly in 2011 will do well in 2012.
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China: Chinese New Year is Jan 23’rd and nothing is going to happen to their economy until then.
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