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President & CEO at Lawrence Decter Investment Counsel
Member since: Nov '06 · 1316 Opinions
Despite today's sharp sell-off, he feels that Q4 will be positive. Happening now is some tax-loss selling. Also, now there's a short-term fixed-income opportunity of 5-6% in GICs and bond ETFs, but there's little reward in holding these for the long term of 5-more years and stocks eventually rebound--and he expects. Remember that stocks can raise their dividends and bonds cannot. October could be bumpy but Q4 will be strong. The next move on interest rates will be down. It's immaterial if there's one more rate increase, likely in November and December, because rates will then hold. He likes energy, financials and industrials, where the selling is overdone and the fundamentals are very good. You can get a 6-7% divvy on a Canadian bank and he can't remember when that last happened. Banks will feel some turbulence over the mortgage market, but they can make more money under high interest rates than low.
He loves Canadian banks. BNS pays the highest dividend or close to it. There's some question about the CEO change, because the new CEO doesn't come from banks. Banks are downsizing after investing in IT. BNS likes the dividend that they raised. BNS operates in Latin America, not the easiest place to do business. RY and TD have less volatility, but pay a lower dividend.
Has owned this. Nothing wrong with owning it. Over time, the telcos could see their oligopoly erode with more competition. Also, higher GIC rates are hurting the telco stocks, known for their dividends. Don't sell. Wait for interest rates to stabilize. Sure, GICs pay 5%, but what about inflation? Dividend stocks are a better hedge against inflation over the long term.
The weight-loss jobs are the biggest innovation in pharma since the Covid vaccine. By market cap, LLY is the most important drug company in the world. Their Ozempic drug has been a huge successful, reducing weight and heart attacks. A negative side effect likely would have turned up by now, so he expect sales volume to keep rising, up to over $120 billion annually.
A dominant nat gas company that's well-run. They move gas from Canada to California. Because there are no processing plants for LNG in Canada right now, TOU has been sending their gas to the US to refine then ship to Asia, but receive a much better price. Volumes aren't large yet, but Asian demand is strong.
He's avoided all chipmakers, because of the strong geopolitical tensions (US, Taiwan). Always make him nervous when a government throws subsidies into a business as Washington is; always are strings attached. Also, Apple will make its own chips. Prefers to own the chip-using companies like Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon.