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President & Portfolio Manager at Stone Castle Investment Management Inc.
Member since: Oct '13 · 1863 Opinions
A year ago, the street expected a recession, but now it expects a soft landing. If there is a recession, will it be broad or only in certain sectors? The softening US dollar was a story last year and it continues to influence the market (shares have risen as the dollar weakens). Watch the USD. Also watch the US election this year. The last few years have followed exactly the pattern of a presidential cycle: years 1 & 2 are not strong, year 3 is very strong and year 4 is also strong. But in year 4, January-February are choppy, then March-August are strong, then September-October are choppy, then the rest of the year is strong. Let's see if 2024 follows this pattern.
A pandemic darling, but their valuation became extreme and they had trouble managing their profitability. As they remained profitable, it couldn't keep up with the street's rising expectations, and so it sold off hard. It bottomed last fall. He bought it as it started to rebound, hoping for rising profitability.
Are in helium in Canada and U.S. with 3 successful wells. After drilling, they're now getting that helium to market. A US partner will process the gas. What price will they get? They project $20-30 million which would allow them to drill even more wells. Helium is far more stable than natural gas. he expects a January effect for AVN. Last year, they raised money for production but impatient shareholders sold, and they've seen tax-loss selling last month. It's one of his larger holdings.