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Portfolio Manager & Publisher, Linde Equity Report at Linde Equity Report
Member since: Feb '14 · 928 Opinions
The Nasdaq was down 30% last year with no capitulation. It is now back to its 2021 levels on the strength of the Magnificent 7 and the rush of big techs to get into AI. It is up 4 times in eight years. Retail investors have done well buying what is popular and the Magnificent 7 are now at lofty valuations and more volatile. If you look at the full slate of stocks (not including the Magnificent 7) that represent 30 % of the index now, you will find better opportunities going forward.
It is adding more stores and raising prices by 10% which people are paying. More middle and higher income people are coming into their restaurants along with lower income customers eating there less often. It has spent 7 years improving the burgers and is now increasing the size of them. It reinvests profits more than the other chains.
It is a unique company and is expecting annualized growth in the 15 to 20% range. It can be somewhat volatile so buy on the dips. Its biggest asset is BAM which has $420 billion under management and is aiming for $1 trillion over the next five years and in fact is ahead of schedule in this effort. It is a good long term hold and still has room to run.
The momentum and revenue growth still looks strong. However after next year look at the environment for semi-conductors. AMD and Intel may get into the AI market and three of Nvidia's customers could start making their own AI chips. There is also a semi-conductor boom going on in China. Lots of possible competition could lead to a glut of semi-conductors in 2 or 3 years. It also specializes in making software. Nvidia has lost 50% of its value twice in the past 6 years and this could happen again.
It doesn't get as much attention as the big five Canadian banks yet has out-performed them based on the share price 5, 10 and 15 years ago. This should continue. It has doubled in the last 5 years and that is twice the total return of the Canadian bank index. It doesn't do much business in the U.S. which is a good thing. He is overweight.
Editor's Note - The question was more related to the oil and gas sector in general. The sector is down and not growing much so wait for a pullback before buying stock in these companies. There has been less capital spending in the industry than before so there could be supply chain constraints going forward. Companies have been paying cash flow back to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. He doesn't own Tourmaline but it is a great company.
It has had a great run-up with revenue growing 24% this year and 20% next year. The business has three parts: point of sale, enterprise and international. Enterprise is a harder sell and the international component has only 4% of global e-commerce volume. It is trading at 14X sales and 140X this year's expected earnings so you could consider lightening your position.
There was a trading opportunity in November but now you should wait before buying. It has announced a $10 billion share buyback which amounts to about a quarter of its shares. It's interesting to note that over the past 30 years the number of autos sold in the U.S. has remained steady at about 15 million per year so basically the overall market is stagnant.
The question was on his preference between Dollar General and Dollar Tree in the U.S. Dollar General has cratered so it looks like a buying opportunity but actually isn't since it benefited from the pandemic and may just be returning to normal levels. This also causes him to be cautious on Dollar Tree.