He sees peak earnings for this company in the $2-$3 range, sometime over the next 5 years. Traditionally, when this happens, it starts to trade at 10-15 times earnings and you end up with a huge winner. You have to have the patience to live through zero earnings periods that we are in right now. A lot of high cost production has come off stream so supply is getting constrained. This should push the price of aluminum up. He sees a big bump in earnings coming by 2016.
The question was on Aluminum companies. He considers Alcoa the obvious one to consider. The stock is cheap but earnings are declining. The FMV is over 55% higher than where it is today.
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly This integrated producer of aluminum and the world's largest miner of bauxite is a TOP PICK. Recently reported earnings support a 30% ROE and cash reserves are growing, while the company buys back shares and retires debt. It trades at 10x earnings compared to peers at 21x and is valued at 1.5x book. We recommend placing a stop loss at $31, looking to achieve $60 -- upside of 25%. Yield 0.8% (Analysts’ price target is $78.64)
Are benefitting from high aluminum prices, driven by the Russian war. Lots of ups and downs. Take profits or exit, if you own. Eventually, shares and aluminum prices will decline.
Minerals have had a huge run. How sustainable is this underlying demand? He thinks there will be a pullback, as with BHP. Don't buy something top of market. If you've made money, take some off the table. At these levels, stay away.
They report Thursday. They reported a great quarter last time. However, many cyclicals have peaked. Aluminum goes into everything, and the rising cost has squeezed gross margins of a lot of the buyers.
Would hold but not buy more. Aluminum names might top base metals. So important in light weighting vehicles. EV is also a tailwind. There is consumer product demand too which is cyclical. Diversify in the base metal space.
Sold this over a year ago. It has gotten ahead of themselves. There are better values in less cyclical businesses that will have long term earnings growth. It is exposed to commodity prices. It is probably too late and the rebound has already happened.
He sold last year. It has since taken another hammering. Aluminum price will benefit from a stronger economy. This is a light metal and so every new generation of cars and airplanes will use it. There is nothing special about AA-N and it is a difficult place to be.
He sees peak earnings for this company in the $2-$3 range, sometime over the next 5 years. Traditionally, when this happens, it starts to trade at 10-15 times earnings and you end up with a huge winner. You have to have the patience to live through zero earnings periods that we are in right now. A lot of high cost production has come off stream so supply is getting constrained. This should push the price of aluminum up. He sees a big bump in earnings coming by 2016.