Apple Inc (AAPL)

Reported revenue growth of 33% year-over-year and earnings growth of over 45% which slightly exceeded expectations that were posted on the street, and yet the market still sold off. This is a lesson to march to your own drummer as opposed to what the market might be telling you at any given point in time. Their new watch to him is more of a sensory device, a beginning of a new category, that is extremely exciting. People who get caught up in the idea that it is a watch are missing the point. This is going more into an incredibly important social device. It is going to have implications from a social standpoint and a medical standpoint. Stock is not expensive and this is one of the fastest-growing companies that he knows of. It has innovation, capital distribution through dividends and stock buybacks, and it has China. China now represents about a quarter of their total revenues.

Down 7% in after-hours, but he is a shareholder, not a trader. Traders are speculating on what earnings are going to be, but he sees a company whose revenues are up 30% year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. Profits are growing and guidance looks pretty good. It is all about fundamentals. Stripping out the cash, he thinks they are guiding for over $9 a share in earnings. Would be buying more of this tomorrow if he already didn’t own so much. He tries to focus on the long-term on things he wants to own for 5 years. This stock is cheap.

(A Top Pick April 29/15. Up 53.45%.) Had a meaningful uptick in earnings as they launched the iPhone 6, and the bigger screens took hold and began to take a domineering position in the high priced smart phone category. Still inexpensive relative to the markets.

Look for them to launch a new Apple TV box this fall. They are putting all their content relationships together today, which will be another new category. The iWatch hasn’t had big progress yet, but he expects it will. Also, thinks the new iPhone cycle will continue to grow.

At 13X earnings, even before you strip out the cash, you can buy this today and not be concerned about where the stock is going to be 2 or 3 years from now.

Historically people want to buy this right around the end of the year, and this is because people want to buy Apple products at around Christmas. Technically, over the last 8 months or so, it has been in a trading range and there is no real strong technical reason to become involved yet. You may want to wait until closer to October when seasonality clicks in.

(A Top Pick July 24/14. Up 25.91%.) This is getting caught up in what is going on in the market. There are very clearly rising moving averages. Stock has been basically trading in a range of $120-$134. Earnings are coming up and we are going to get a clearer picture there. Technically this is not broken at all.

Not an expensive stock, cash flow almost 10%, dividends are around 1.6. Iphone is generating a lot of their revenue. A lot harder to innovate in the future, compared to the ipad, and iphone. Doesn't think the watch is going to happen at all.

A perfect picture of a quantitative stock. It scores really well on price momentum, valuation and in the top 2% of the S&P 500 on value. Trading at 8X EBITDA and 15X PE. This is a company with 38% ROE, and yet trades at a lower multiple than the broad market. One of the best balance sheets you could possibly find. They have a lot of options in buying back stocks.

The big growth spurt was from 2006 to 2009, followed by a growth spurt in 2009-2011 and another one from 2013-2015. That is 3 growth spurts and this stock is in the 3^rd phase. A lot of money was made in the 1^st spurt, but not as much in the 2^nd and even less in the 3^rd. He thinks growth in this company is going to slow down. Most of the easy money has been made. He wouldn’t get too excited about this.

He does not think the Apple watch is the be all and end all. The last iPhone release was successful. He thinks Apple music will make incremental revenue. 11 times earnings.

The valuation on this is still very, very solid. Trading on a 13 X forward PE multiple with a 15% long-term growth rate. That puts it at a PEG ratio of 1.0%. Balance sheet is unbeatable with $94 billion in cash. That allowed them to do a $140 billion share buyback. Yield of 1.63%.

It is important to separate the outlook for the stock versus the company. They both have challenges. At the company level, it is no longer a fast growth company. The key areas where it makes its profits are pretty mature. It is hoping to develop new revenue lines through music streams, watches, etc. As the stock goes through the transition of being a very high growth company, to being a lower growth company, to being an average growth company you are going to get a rotation in their shareholder base. It is tough to see how the stock will do well over a sustained period of time.

(A Top Pick July 3/14. Up 36.87%.) His model price is $161.03, a 27% upside. $138 is a real barrier for them.

We are always encouraged by our stocks doing well, but the important thing is the underlying company and is it moving at the same rate of growth as the stock price. If it is, then we know that the metrics are basically staying the same or getting less expensive. This is a victim of its own success. The iPhone has been tremendously successful and is their high margin product. He would like to see a bigger pie and thinks we are seeing that as they are expanding their product base.