Andrew PyleAmerican TowerAMTUnspecifiedSep 18, 2023

AMT is a $77.5B REIT which pays a 3.8% yield. Forward sales and earnings estimates are decent, and its historical growth rates are strong. Its margins have been weakening over the past few years and its valuation has come down alongside the rapid rise in interest rates. It generates good free cash flows, which are partly used for distributions and partially for paying down debt. It has a good balance sheet, and it is fundamentally strong, but its valuations are somewhat high and declining based on competition from other high-yielding assets with much less risk such as GICs and high-interest savings accounts. We feel that a catalyst that could help its share price is interest rates stalling or even declining. The central banks indicating that they are done with hiking interest rates can act as a catalyst for AMT and other REITs.
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Has looked at the business in the past.
Maturing business - reason for stock price decline.
Diversification of towers has peaked in North America.
Growth rates slowing.
Would not invest at this time.

Higher interest rates impacting share price and business.
Debt and leverage more expensive.
Fundamentals of company still strong.
Demand for 5G still growing.
Will continue to hold.
Good time to buy with share price weakness.

P/E today is 17.8X (as it has dropped since more since Aug 14). Net debt is about $42B. 12 month cash flow was $4.4B. Certainly it is a large debt burden. Interest expense last year was $1.2B. So carrying charges are about 25%+ of cash flow. But the business is stable, as is cash flow. We would not consider debt to be 'fatal', but servicing it can limit growth, and this is clear in the numbers and forecasts. Still, American Tower's total property revenue rose 4.4% in 2Q, including 6.2% organic growth and a 7.2% gain in its data-center revenue, highlighting the benefits of diversification. AMT raised the midpoint of its 2023 outlook, with increases of 1.2% and 1.1% in its property revenue and adjusted Ebitda. The latter grew 4.7% in 2Q, reflecting the company's keen focus on cost control. Its 2Q services revenue fell 27.9%, and management warned that this unit will remain soft in 2H as carriers reduce their 5G spending. AMT’s 2Q international organic tenant billings growth of 7.9% was above its 5.1% domestic rate, despite problems in India, where Vodafone Idea has struggled to pay the company on time. AMT is in the later stages of negotiating the sale of 50-100% of its stake in the country. We would consider it 'ok'. Not a sell, but not really compelling enough to buy. 
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Tough year for the business.
Very high exposure to interest rates.
Long term contracts under pressure.
Well diversified business. 
Prospects for the company are strong.

He sold it, because there's slower topline growth as the customer curtails spending on the 5G as interest rates are higher and capex costs weigh on cash flows. Also, the PE is extended.

Stock pick not working out.
Business remains strong. 
One of largest real estate investment trusts in USA.
Large focus on data centers & 5G networks.
Expecting further growth going away.
Real estate currently out of favor with rising interest rates (large amounts of debt).

Stock's down a lot, mainly due to interest rates and not execution. Hard to expect multiple expansion on REITs until rates peak and go down. A lot of debt. Very attractive here. Owns a very small allocation in his balanced and income portfolios. Sees more demand for data ahead. Regular dividend growth. Yield about 3.3%.

FMV is going up at one rate, but the price is going up at another. There's a tremendous gap, and that gap is always closed by the price coming down. Looks to be rolling over. FMV is 60% below its price. He wouldn't touch it.

The cell phone tower is a growth industry, but these companies/stocks have not been doing well, hurt by higher interest rates. AMT is best of the low. Don't sell, but it won't boast the growth it once had.

Very large player in cell phone business (~200,000 towers world wide). 
Business has slowed, but demand still strong.
Valuation high - trading at ~40x earnings. 
Wait for shares to fall before buying.
Dividend yield worrying (not sure they can sustain).