
TSE:BCE
Extremely well-managed and clearly the dominant player in Canada. They’ve done a great job of diversifying into media type businesses. Continuing to increase their dividend. His concern would be that cellular telephone growth is probably largely behind us. Most people are disconnecting their main line. The TV business is under pressure as advertising goes away. He doesn’t think they are in danger, but the future is a little tough. Not a stock that he would own.
Has owned this several times and it has been his biggest position, but last year started to take some off the table at around $64. Chart shows it is now having a new break out, which is positive. There is going to be some capping when it hits resistance at around $64. You could put a toe in the water, and there may be an opportunity to add to it later.
This company’s preferreds are really broken down into 2 types of resets. 3 have a fixed reset and the rest do not. BCE has generally been pretty fair resetting their coupons, but all of the group are trading between $.50 and $.70 on the dollar, all at a discount. The problem is, there are so many of them that the whole group needs to move. Their running yields are around 4.5%, and have been resetting in and around 4.5%. With this, you are really making an interest rate call and using BCE as your credit.
This has come down because there of concerns about slowing demand for services and potentially rising interest rates. You are getting almost a 5% dividend yield, and it is going to grow. It has great cash flow generating ability. He likes their Manitoba telecom acquisition as it gives them more synergy potential. (Analysts’ price target is $60.)
The challenge is, how do they increase the subscriber base when the business model is changing so rapidly. The Internet is changing things hugely. Last year, more people cut the cable and their subscriptions to paid TV, than ever before. They are all going to easy internet protocol type things. At the end of the day, what becomes of our major telecom companies? Are they becoming Internet providers, and offering services like Netflix? The wireless is the one thing they’ve been able to hold on to, and this is where BCE really has the advantage. They’ve managed to keep the dividends growing as they’ve been able to keep earnings growing.
He is constructive on this. Gives good income from the dividend. There will be some negative overhang with regards to the debt, continually borrowing money. A lot of negative overhang with the media side, a smaller component. They have a big wireless division which is growing. The landline division seems to have stopped its bleeding which is positive. He is looking at this cautiously, based on the fact that they are paying out a good deal of their income towards the dividend, as well as borrowing money.
He would value this on a free cash flow basis, looking 1-2 years out. It has come off a little and free cash flow yield has gotten a little better. Management has done a great job. However, top line growth is only at about 1%. They have to spend a lot of money to continue to work on the network to stay competitive. Dividend yield of about 5%.
Not a fan of this. Prefers Telus (T-T) because they are turning around with the Western economy starting to grow again. BCE’s revenues were up 1% in the last year. Assets aren’t growing. While they have good margins, the dividend is only growing roughly at a 4%-5% rate. When you take into account tax and inflation, you are pretty much getting to zero.
Sold his holdings last summer. The top in the last year or so was right when interest rates started to move higher in the US. This company is quite sensitive to interest rates. As interest rates moved higher, the stock has moved down. In the last several months, the stock has held its own and moved sideways. If looking for the 5% yield without tremendous capital growth, then it is a stock you might want to own.
This has a very low beta, which means that no matter what happens in the stock market, this doesn’t get affected much. Also, it gives you a pretty good yield of about 5%. Over the years, the chart shows it has been steadily climbing. In the last several months it is looking a little tired, not negative, but he would wait a month or 2 to see if you can buy it in the low $50s, which would give you much better protection.