Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG)

Got a little weak. In early August, it made a new high and then came back down. It has a moving average at around $1735, which would be a base. It would probably line up with the bottoms of the last several months. If buying for new clients today, he would not take a full position. He would rather pay a little more, and wait for it surge to around $1940 to get a full position. A well-run company that is well followed on the street.

This has been one of the best performing stocks in the NYSE’s history. Had owned this about 15 years ago at $19, but the multiple is lower today than it was then. They will make somewhere in the neighbourhood of $78 a share in earnings this year, and may even touch $90 a share next year. They’ve been very acquisitive over their lifespan. (Analysts’ price target is $2,100.)

The PE is 38 times earnings and 22 times forward earnings. The optimal time to buy is September 25^th with a sell date of April 30^th. It should return 23.92% according to seasonal averages. This year it had a gap lower. It had a parabolic rise this year and so you expect that to alleviate. $1728 would be the ideal point to pick it up at.

He likes the space. Online travel has double digit growth and secular trends are good. Valuation has probably got a little stretched. Taking a bit of a hit today as their guidance was a little squishy compared to what people were hoping for. They did beat estimates. This is in a space which is really over-loved, a flag for caution. A well-run company. There will be some volatility.

(A Top Pick June 24/16. Up 60.39%.) This has done an amazing job. It is a poster child for what a network affect is. They have the best hotel listings, they get the most customers, and because they have the most customers booking, they get more hotel listings. The runway for this company is still significant.

A good example of a stock that will benefit from a lot of technology trends of more and more people doing things online. 30% of travel bookings are done online right now, still a relatively low number. The industry is dominated by 2 players, Priceline and Expedia. The estimated P/E of 42X is way too high. Next year’s estimates are closer to 21X, and if you strip out cash, it is actually below 20X. They are going to be able to grow through acquisition, which they’ve done a good job of. (Analysts’ price target is $2040.)

He has 2 different Stop methods, and he is really close to the Trailing Stop. He uses $1791 and $1773, and this is really close to that. The chart shows a nice long upward trend developing.

(A Top Pick March 23/16. Up 44%.) Has been involved with for a long time. Their holding of Booking.Com has been a major home run for them. It was involved in hotel reservations, especially European operations, where there are not a lot of chains, but single owner proprietor hotels, which need exposure.

(Top Pick June 24/16, Up 43%) It’s a very volatile name. It has the best on-line booking platform in the world. They generate great margins. It is growing 20% a year and trading at 20 times earnings, ex cash.

(Top Pick Jan 5/16, Up 36.19%) It has a healthy market share in the travel industry worldwide.

This company has such a huge runway of opportunity. Only 35% of all travel bookings are done online, and the rest are done through travel agents. This company makes most of its money, not in North America, but in Europe and Asia. It only has a 10% market share of online bookings. A fast growing company, 15%-20% revenue growth, and trading at a reasonable valuation. A stock that could benefit from a repatriation of capital, as it has over $10 billion of cash offshore. No dividend. (Analysts’ price target is $1733.74.)

(A Top Pick Nov 27/15. Up 20.77%.) An online travel company. Their biggest property is Booking.com. They have thousands of properties, many of them in Europe which, isn’t as populated by hotel chains as North America is. They are going to earn high $60 EPS this year, and are going to skip the $70 next year, as the consensus is $80 EPS for 2017.

(A Top Pick Nov 2/15. Up 4.65%.) One of the hallmarks of a good market is that leadership should broaden to new groups. One of the groups that was noticeably absent from the market was consumer discretionary. Early in the fall, the travel and leisure group started to lift. This is a dominant company in the travel business. He would buy this today.

One of the most successful companies on the exchange. It has done extremely well through the years, and continues to do so. An online travel company, and owns booking.com, open table, Kayak. Very, very successful and high growth. Gross bookings rise anywhere from 25% to 30% year-over-year on a quarterly basis. He is looking for about $67 a share in earnings this year, and probably at $80 for next year.

This is getting absolutely decimated today. They get 75% of their revenues from Europe. Their biggest entity is Booking.Com, a wonderful, wonderful company and benefits from the network affect. They have the most hotels and they are smart operators. A beautiful balance sheet that generates gobs of free cash. Unbelievable margins. Anything exposed to Europe right now is getting his head handed to it, but this is a wonderful buying opportunity.