Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG)

He chose this because of what happened in Belgium in the last couple of days. This always trades off on these terrorists’ events. It is a fact that people will continue to travel, and this company will continue to do well. Trading at about 19X this year and about 18X next year. They have layered on internet options such as Booking.com, OpenTable for dinner reservations, Kayak for flights.

$912 model price, 13% above fair value, but we had two negative transits (two EBV levels), which are sell signals. If it drops below $719, put the full position on there.

80% of returns come from getting to the right market and getting to the sectors within that market that benefits from whatever the secular shift is that is taking place. If our base belief is that the consumer is the ultimate winner, and that the consumer will spend money on experiences, then travel and leisure is a group you want to have a look at. If he had to pick one company in this area, he would probably choose Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL-N), which has been remarkably resilient. Priceline has basically been correcting and consolidating over the last 14-16 months. The stock has pulled back and is into support, and is in the right group. Look for a reversal, but he doesn’t have a problem with this. You want to see revisions on earnings start to move higher.

People want experienced now, not objects. This one has a PE of 15. The 4-digit price scares some people. He thinks it will get to $100 profit per share in the next 3 years. Huge margin business with 70% gross margins.

There are a few Internet retailers that have been doing extremely well, and this is one of them. This is one of those companies that is very top of mind from, originally an obscure new industry, and nailed it. Have done extremely well. They have the branding right, the marketing right and the customer approach right. Trading a little bit rich now for their growth that is on the horizon, so it feels a little bit frothy, but fundamentally there is nothing wrong.

His model price is $936. If the US market got ugly later on, this would be on his list.

Has admired the company tremendously. They are very innovative. This is an example of how technology is transforming whole industries. People that don’t transform in this highly innovative environment are really going to struggle. This is a high multiple stock and has been growing very well. Has totally disrupted the travel industry. He worries that companies like Facebook (FB-Q), Apple (AAPL-Q) and Google (GOOG-Q) are going to increasingly be able to move into these kinds of things, particularly Facebook. Airbnb is also dramatically changing how the travel business works.

A high beta stock, which means it moves the market, so is relatively volatile. If you stay with it long term, it does very well. This is in the Internet space, but in the Internet travel space. They own Booking.com, Kayak and Open Table. Growing gross bookings in the high 20%. This is an opportunity because with the unfortunate events in Paris and terrorism on everybody’s mind, the fear is that travel will be a little more subdued. However, historically, drivers have a great propensity to take on greater risk to get what we want.

This is a funny one. A stock with a big share price which makes people think it is overvalued, but it actually scores really well on valuation. ROE is particularly strong at 30%. It is high in terms of value on PE to EBITDA, but there is no net debt. Has had strong price momentum, even with the recent volatility. They have been a consolidator for their business. From a price line this is one that you can hold here.

The chart, from early 2014 to now, is beginning to look like a cup. A cup is identified by having lower lows followed by higher lows. It looks like it tried to break out, but failed. As a technical person he wouldn’t buy this until it definitively broke the handle, somewhere around $1300. The formation is encouraging, but it is not yet ready to Buy.

This is probably a falling knife at this point. They came out with great earnings, weak guidance, so the stock fell. Not only was the guidance tepid, but anything trouble related is getting hit hard. Give it a few days at least. Overall it is a good company and probably something you can wade back into.

(A Top Pick Nov 3/14. Up 22.61%.) They are going to report on the 9^th and he thinks it will be a good report, especially based on what some of their peers are doing. Expects they will report somewhere around $57 a share for the year. Next year it will probably push $70.

The consumer is strengthening due to low oil prices and the first thing they are doing is spending more money on travel. Online is taking a larger and larger share of the revenue. This one has a dominant position in Europe. It has a growing piece of a pie in a growing market.

(Top Pick Sept. 11/14, Up 8.70%) 70% of revenues are from outside of the US, so it surprises him that it is up.

An online site for booking travel and they have hundreds of thousands of relationships with hotels globally. Last quarter they grew international bookings at 29% year-over-year. It is still growing extremely robustly. Currently trading at about 18X this year’s earnings. He is expecting $65 of earnings per share this year.