Baytex Energy Corp (BTE.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Baytex Energy Corp (BTE.TO)

5.71

+0.11 (1.96%)

as of Jun 19, 2026, 8:00:01 pm Market Open.

386 watching

DON'T BUY

If oil stays up, Baytex can go with it. Their balance sheet is quite bloated compared to peers. They do not have production growth. The commodity side is growing cash flow but there are better plays.

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PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Feb 12/20, Down 33%) A higher-beta oil play. They have excess debt that they'll pay down this year with free cash flow. They have a good free cash flow yield. He targets $1.40-1.50 based on $60 oil. At $60, this is a free cash flow machine. The business model changes drastically from $50 to $60 oil. They need to pay down their debt.

COMMENT

They have US operations as well as Canada. These companies trade similarly over time and that is based on oil. You will get a lot of leverage to the upside with this one but it is dependant on the oil price.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 19/19, Down 52%) It continues to offer meaningful leverage for rising oil prices. They hedged off 50% of their oil exposure next year. He does not own this for this reason.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 19/19, Down 64%) It offers meaningful beta for increasing oil price. He thinks it will lag other names, especially since more and more investors favour MEG. He does not hold it.

RISKY

People are tempted by the price in cents, but it's not actually that cheap. Net debt to cashflow is 9x, whereas you don't want to go beyond 3x. More of a trading stock.

DON'T BUY

There is debt load and the primary asset is not operated in Eagleford. The differentials have also shrank to 9$ today. The debt hurts them and the market does not believe in $50 oil. He would prefer MEG.

DON'T BUY

He sold it a few days ago. The amount of financial participants in the sector right now is a fraction of what it was in the past. There is financial leverage that dissuaded him from holding. There are more compelling opportunities.

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PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Sep 09/19, Down 63%) When he picked this last year, he projected $60 oil and Baytex was paying down debt and buying back stock. He took the hit, selling it, and moved on. He'd rather be in pipelines or low-cost producers like Suncor or Tourmaline. Energy stocks have run a little ahead of the fundamentals now. Few energy companies are making money now in Canada or the U.S. Oil may any fall back into the $30s/barrel.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Speculative buy you thought? If you are bullish on oil, it can be a good buy. He sold it at $0.34 so he could buy others that did not have the same financial risk. He bought it back at $0.40 before the rally up. He sold it after making 100% in a week. There will be a time and a price that it will make sense, but he is not sharing when that will be again.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jul 19/19, Down 80%) A good reminder it is not how you start the year, but how you finish. He thinks energy prices will recover before year end. He no longer owns it. They had higher leverage than its peers. Their non-operated crown jewel is in the Eagleford. He thinks that became a knock against them as well. He has become more of bull on Canadian energy producers now.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jun 15/19, Down 78%) The environment for energy back then was nothing like it is now. The oil situation is far from over. The producers are going to have some dire days ahead.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Apr 26/19, Down 85%) He sold out when oil prices dropped to the mid-$30s. He will own it again and likes their hedge book, which is 48% hedged. They luckily refinanced their debt out to 2027 just before the COVID crisis took hold.

DON'T BUY

Low price momentum, volatile and a stressed balance sheet.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Apr 26/19, Down 59%) They are predominately light and heavy oil production. They refinanced their debt out to 2027. The balance sheet leverage is a little high, but they do not face any issues for years to come now. They are 46% hedged this year. They are fully funded down to $47 oil for the year.

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Baytex Energy Corp (BTE.TO)