John McCollCAE IncCAE.TODON'T BUYSep 25, 2002

EPS of 27c beat estimates of 21c; Revenue of $1.089B beat estimates by 3%. EBITDA of $229M beat estimates by 2.4%. Three brokers lowered targets. Civil aviation was strong but the defense sector experienced lower than expected results and margin pressure. Defense margins were guided to mid-single-digit, vs consensus of 6% to 7%. Revenue rose 9.6%. Backlog did grow 11% to $11.8B. Not great results, but we think still worth keeping for its backlog and a potential growth recovery, which expected in 2024, based on consensus estimates. 
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Good move to spin off medical simulation division. Room to run. Pilot shortage. Baby boom is still in revenge travel mode. Air Emirates just ordered Boeing planes. All tailwinds from a secular point of view.

Good managers. Usually trades at a premium. Long-term story is strong. Geopolitics will encourage sales in defence planes (flight simulators). Profitable and ROE needs to improve, though. Enjoys pricing power. Won't buy because the valuation is high.

Will continue to fly. With all costs so high, simulators allow pilots to remain current at reduced cost. Will expand over time. Greying of the pilot employee pool, and CAE will capitalize on the needed increase in training.

Explosion in aviation, pilot shortages, need for training. Incredible amount of demand for simulators. Commercial side has been strong. Cost hiccups have been an overhang on the defense side, and this is getting tidied up. A matter of time before it gets a higher multiple, due to quality of the business and recurring revenue. Strong backlog. No dividend.

We would consider it OK but not great for now. For a new position, we would be okay starting with a small position. It has been a bit disappointing but potential does remain. 
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They had a bad Q2 last year, so he picked up shares. He wants to see them resume their dividend. They're integrating acquisitions well and air travel, especially in China, is rising. All looks good. Good long-term and a global leader.

Play on shortage of pilots and need to renew aircraft. Well positioned on defense. With world pressures, he expects more defense spending. Fixed-price contracts had held them back, but are rolling off and get renewed higher. Stock's come off, though it's not inexpensive. Future earnings should cause stock to be revalued up. No dividend.