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Opinions Jerome Hass
Cineplex IncCGX.TOTOP PICKOct 21, 2014
Jerome HassStock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 19, 2026. Market Open.
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Covid hammered them, while a British company tried to buy them but aborted that deal (now in a lawsuit). It's not cheap seeing a movie, but he goes now and then. Movies are coming back, though. You can't duplicate the experience at home. Still a lot of uncertainty with this stock, though.
Revenue growth is coming back a bit, with lower comparables from last year helping the year-over-year figures. Its debt levels are high, with net debt of $1.9B, and a net debt/EBITDA of 6.8X. Interest costs are $137M (last 12 months) and these will likely rise a bit with higher rates. 12-month cash flow was $116M and therein lies the problem. The debt is mostly due in the next five years. With attendance back, and a decent film slate, bankruptcy is becoming less of a concern, but it is still hard to paint a really positive picture here because of the leverage.
It is somewhat cheap (0.4X forward sales), but also has a fairly high forward P/E of 20.2X. It could become a takeover target, however, we would not place a high level of probability on that at these current levels.
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Cineplex remains a recovery story, and its beta of 2.88 signals more risk than usual. It rose 10% in Q1, but the chart was choppy. So, consider Cineplex a partial buy. After all, Covid didn’t kill cinema-going, as some expected, but deferred it. We still love the big screen. Read Dark horses: Nuvei, Cineplex, Boralex for our full analysis.
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Short. They have a 77% market share in Canada, so there is not much scope for them to grow by acquisition. This was the worst summer in North American cinemas in 17 years on an inflation adjusted basis. Thinks they are going to have some issues in their Q3 numbers. When attendance goes down 13%, it is going to have a big impact on profitability. There are also longer-term structural issues that they face. Netflix is competing against them. There is going to be Pick & Pay on cable TV. There was a recent announcement that HBO is going to have direct offering, so Netflix is looking to bypass some movies. Yield of 3.6%. Valuation is at 30X earnings and 13.5X EBITDA, which to him is very expensive.