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Opinions Christine Poole
Cineplex IncCGX.TOHOLDSep 12, 2017
Christine PooleStock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 19, 2026. Market Open.
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Covid hammered them, while a British company tried to buy them but aborted that deal (now in a lawsuit). It's not cheap seeing a movie, but he goes now and then. Movies are coming back, though. You can't duplicate the experience at home. Still a lot of uncertainty with this stock, though.
Revenue growth is coming back a bit, with lower comparables from last year helping the year-over-year figures. Its debt levels are high, with net debt of $1.9B, and a net debt/EBITDA of 6.8X. Interest costs are $137M (last 12 months) and these will likely rise a bit with higher rates. 12-month cash flow was $116M and therein lies the problem. The debt is mostly due in the next five years. With attendance back, and a decent film slate, bankruptcy is becoming less of a concern, but it is still hard to paint a really positive picture here because of the leverage.
It is somewhat cheap (0.4X forward sales), but also has a fairly high forward P/E of 20.2X. It could become a takeover target, however, we would not place a high level of probability on that at these current levels.
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Cineplex remains a recovery story, and its beta of 2.88 signals more risk than usual. It rose 10% in Q1, but the chart was choppy. So, consider Cineplex a partial buy. After all, Covid didn’t kill cinema-going, as some expected, but deferred it. We still love the big screen. Read Dark horses: Nuvei, Cineplex, Boralex for our full analysis.
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Had been buying for new clients earlier this year and unfortunately, they are underwater. If you own, you should keep holding it. Yields over 4%, so you are getting paid to wait. The traffic into theatres was obviously soft, which she thinks was the movie slate. 2015 and 2016 were both record banner years. In the last 4-5 years, box office sales have continued to increase, as well as the number of tickets sold. Thinks the slate will improve. Management is trying to diversify out of just being in theatres, and making investments in the Rec Room, online gaming, Top Golf, etc. There is no rush to buy right away, because we know the 3rd quarter is going to be soft. If thinking longer-term, you can slowly start to add here.